The Impact Of Environmental Regulation Game On Employment In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeratio

With the development of society,the urban agglomeration has become the main form of China’s new urbanization pattern.Among them,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has received extensive attentions due to its unique political and economic status.In the context of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development"being one of the major national strategies,a win-win situation for both the environment and employment is an important goal of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development".However,the existing researches on the game of environmental regulation and the impact of environmental regulation on employment have focused on the analysis between provinces and cities.In general,different provinces and cities are regarded as independent individuals.Under the background of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration,the formulation and game of environmental regulation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,and the impact of environmental regulation game on employment,are inevitably unique,but which are a lack of corresponding research works.Based on this situation,this paper deeply studies the impact of environmental regulation game on employment in BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Around the purpose of study,this paper focuses on the following research works:(1)From the current situation of environmental regulation and employment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,it analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation and employment;meanwhile,it finds that there is not only a direct impact of environmental regulation on employment,but also a spatial spillover effect.(2)Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a research object,a basic game model is firstly deduced,and which is compared with the derived results of traditional game model under current situation of environmental regulation game in each city of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration by spatial correlation model.Due to the differences and contradictions between current situations and the derived results of model,the synergistic factors of urban agglomeration were introduced into traditional game model to construct a new game model,and where environmental regulation game among cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was proved to be a game under the synergy of urban agglomeration.(3)The simulation of employment size in cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under no environmental regulation game scenario using multiple approaches to form a counterfactual control group,with each scale of the urban employment status of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as experimental group,and uses econometric models such as mixed regression model and endogenous model to quantify the impact of environmental regulation games on the size of employment.(4)Considering that the coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration will affect employment scale by influencing the environmental regulation game of BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,cluster analysis is used to classify 352 prefecturelevel cities in China;meanwhile,it uses the PSM model and the establishment time of different urban agglomerations to find the control group of each city in Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration from other cities.Then,the DID and PSM-DID models are used to analyze the impact of environmental regulation game on employment scale under the coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.(5)Construct an index system based on micro-database to quantify employment quality,and then analyze the impact of environmental regulation game on employment quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.The study shows that:(1)In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,environmental regulation shows a U-shaped impact on employment,that is,in the early stage of environmental regulation,environmental regulation will inhibit employment,and eventually promotes employment growth once the threshold of 0.653 is crossed through the persistent implementation of environmental regulation policies.At the same time,as of 2018,nine of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration have not crossed environmental regulation threshold,accounting for 69.2%.It can be seen that most of cities are still at the stage where environmental regulations inhibit the scale of employment.(2)The environmental regulation game of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is a game under the coordination of urban agglomeration.Before the introduction of synergistic factor,strong environmental regulation was not a preferred strategy for a rational government,but after the introduction of synergistic factor,with different characteristics of dominant strategy in different cities in different cases,to avoid the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities of weak environmental regulation policy is adopted to promote development.(3)For Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the environmental regulation game between cities will affect employment by affecting the environmental regulation formulation process of each city.The environmental regulation game leads to an increasing employment scale of some cities in BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,with an increased range of 1.11%-23.95%.At the same time,it also leads to a reduction in employment in some cities in Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration,with a range of 2.53%to 17.63%.(4)The environmental regulation game under the coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration helps to achieve both environmental and employment benefits,while the city cluster synergy is relatively conducive to the rapid improvement of less developed cities.(5)While the environmental regulation policy itself has a direct or indirect impact on employment,the environmental regulation game under the coordination of BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is also regulating the impact of environmental regulation policy,although it weakened the part of positive influence,but also reducing the loss from negative impact,so that the impact of environmental regulation policy fluctuates within a more moderate range,acting as a policy stabilizer.Finally,the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the research conclusions.The contributions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,taking Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration as a research object,it supplements the research status that existing theoretical derivation and empirical analysis lack urban agglomerations as a unit.Secondly,by constructing counterfactual scenarios and controlling for individual differences,this paper quantifies the impact of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration environmental regulation game on the employment scale,providing a reference for the formulation of environmental regulations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Finally,the impact of environmental regulation game on employment is demonstrated from the perspective of employment size and quality respectively,providing a research path that can be drawn on for other related studies.