| China’s economy has experienced a stage of rapid development driven by factors and investment,and achieved a rapid rise in economic aggregate,but this is accompanied by resource shortage,environmental pollution,ecological damage and other problems.The 20 th Report of the Communist Party of China clearly states that “promoting green development and promoting harmonious coexistence between man and nature”.Green development has become the main development mode at present.Green development efficiency,as a comprehensive index taking into account resources,environment and economy,has been focused by scholars.Cities are important spatial carriers of China’s economic and social development.The rapid development of urbanization encourages talents and resources to gather in cities,which promotes sustainable economic development.However,urbanization also leads to blind urban expansion,heavy consumption of natural resources and increased emission of pollutants,impeding green development efficiency.Urbanization policy is an important content in the process of urbanization,which is the integration of driving factors of urbanization.In view of this,based on the measurement and analysis of urban green development efficiency,the dynamic spatial Durbin model,dynamic panel threshold model and intermediary effect model are used to empirically test the influence effect and mechanism of urbanization on green development efficiency.The improved spatial DID model and the urban-rural dual dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model are used to evaluate the effect of urbanization policy on green development efficiency from both empirical and simulation perspectives.Specific contents include:First,this paper introduces the research background and significance,systematically reviews domestic and foreign literature related to measurement of green development efficiency,impact of urbanization on green development efficiency,path mechanism of urbanization on green development efficiency,and effect of urbanization policy,expounds the research content and framework,explains the research ideas and methods,and points out the innovation.Second,this study defines the concepts of urbanization,urbanization policy and green development efficiency.Moreover,the direct impact of urbanization on green development efficiency is discussed from the theoretical mechanism and mathematical model.Then this paper analyzes the path mechanism of urbanization influencing green development efficiency through industrial structure optimization and public expenditure.Addition,urbanization policies in different urbanization stages are illustrated and the influence mechanism of urbanization policies on green development efficiency is revealed.Third,we measured green development efficiency of 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019 used the non-oriented super-efficiency EBM model with undesirable output.We used Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation,σ convergence,space absoluteβ convergence,space condition β convergence to analysis green development efficiency.The results show that the national green development efficiency is on the rise,and the main driving force is green pure technology efficiency.The spatial differentiation degree of green development efficiency increased gradually,and contribution rate of supervariable density was main source of spatial difference.The kernel density curve showed a trend of first moving to left and then fluctuating to right.The height of main peak first increased and then decreased,and the width first decreased and then increased.There was a right-trailing phenomenon,with double peaks in some years.Green development efficiency exists σ convergence,space absolute β convergence,space condition β convergence.Fourth,this paper explores the impact of urbanization on green development efficiency.The dynamic spatial Durbin model and dynamic panel threshold model were used to empirically analyze the spatial and nonlinear threshold effects of urbanization on urban green development efficiency.The results showed that urbanization promoted local green development efficiency and inhibited green development efficiency of surrounding cities.Green development efficiency has a “snowball” effect in time and a spatial agglomeration feature in space.When urbanization is lower than the threshold value,the positive impact on green development efficiency is not significant.When it is higher than the threshold value,green development efficiency is significantly promoted,and the promoting effect of urbanization is enhanced with improvement of level of urbanization.Fifth,this study reveals the impact of urbanization on green development efficiency through industrial structure optimization and public expenditure.The dynamic spatial Durbin model and mediating effect model are combined to analyze mediating role of industrial structure optimization and public expenditure in the process of urbanization affecting green development efficiency.Among them,industrial structure optimization can be divided into industrial structure advanced quantity,industrial structure advanced quality and industrial structure rationalization.Public expenditure is divided into public expenditure scale and public expenditure structure.The results show that both quantity and quality of industrial structure upgrading have positive partial mediating effect in the process of urbanization affecting green development efficiency,while industrial structure rationalization has negative full mediating effect.Public expenditure scale has a positive partial mediating effect in the process of urbanization affecting green development efficiency,while the mediating effect of public expenditure structure is not obvious.Sixth,we analyze the effect evaluation of urbanization policy on green development efficiency.Based on the panel data of 191 prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2019,the improved spatial DID model was used to analyze spillover effect of urbanization policies on green development efficiency,and on the basis of empirical analysis,the impact of urbanization policies on green development efficiency of surrounding experimental group and control group cities was deeply studied.The results show that urbanization policy has a positive effect on local and surrounding green development efficiency.It has a negative effect on urban green development efficiency of surrounding experimental group and a positive effect on urban green development efficiency of surrounding control group.Seventh,this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of urbanization policies on green development efficiency.The urban-rural dual DSGE model including urbanization policy is established that fully reflect the utility of rural-urban migration residents and the connection between urban and rural manufacturers,to analyze implementation effect of urbanization policy represented by rural-urban migration policy.The results show that the impact of rural-urban migration policy on the number of rural-urban migration population presents a “hump-like”change,and it returns to the stable level in about 15 years,and then “overflows” for a long time.When the rural-urban migration policy callback range is slower(fast),the increase range of rural-urban migration is larger(small),and the duration is longer(short);The increase in ruralurban migration will increase the national GDP and GDP growth rate,and at the same time reduce carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,which will help improve green development efficiency.Compared with the situation with employment discrimination,the national GDP and GDP growth rate increased relatively,while carbon emission and carbon emission intensity decreased relatively under the situation without employment discrimination.Compared with the existing literature,this study mainly has the following innovations:First,this study uses the spatial DID model to explore spatial effect of urbanization policy on urban green development efficiency of surrounding experimental group and control group;Second,the residents are divided into big city residents,rural-urban migration residents,and rural(small and medium-sized cities)residents.The relationship between urban and rural vendors(regions)is set up,and urban-rural dual dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate implementation effect of urbanization policies.Third,dynamic spatial Durbin model is combined with mediating effect model,and the panel data of prefecture-level cities is selected to empirically analyze mediating role of industrial structure optimization and public expenditure in the process of urbanization affecting green development efficiency.Fourth,the non-oriented super-efficiency EBM model based on undesirable output is used to measure green development efficiency,and dynamic spatial Durbin model and dynamic panel threshold model are used to analyze spatial and nonlinear effects of urbanization on urban green development efficiency. |
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