The Interaction Between Population Urbanization,Industrial Structure Change And Economic Growth

The National New Urbanization Plan(2014-2020)proposes that urbanization is a necessary way to modernize and is the country's largest domestic demand potential and development kinetic energy.The 16th National Congress,the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,The new type of urbanization is the connotative urbanization of the overall progress of people and society,and its core is the urbanization of people.The connotation-oriented urbanization with people as the core has a tremendous supporting role in stimulating domestic demand,solving the problems of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers",successfully crossing the"middle income trap”,cracking the urban-rural dual pattern,and promoting comprehensive and sustainable economic and social development.Accelerating urbanization,adjusting and optimizing industrial structure and employment institutions,and promoting economic construction are important tasks of the government for a long time now and for a long time.Therefore,at the regional level,from the perspective of econometrics,we can further clarify the impact of economic growth and industrial structure changes on the urbanization of population,and measure the interaction between the three in a more comprehensive,more realistic and objective manner,and continue to promote provincial urbanization.Healthy and sustainable development is of great significance.It has an important guiding role in formulating policies to guide the development of urbanization.This is related to the success or failure of new urbanization construction.In summary,this paper is based on the summary of existing research results and methods and the estimation of future development trends,further research and improvement.In measuring the level of economic growth,this study introduced corrected nighttime light image data.The intensity of nighttime light is closely related to the level of regional economic development and economic activities.It can reflect some information that is difficult to be included in official GDP statistics,such as the informal economy or the underground economy that cannot be accurately recorded.Therefore,the entropy value of the objective weighting method is used in this paper.The method calculates the weight of per capita GDP and nighttime lighting data,and constructs a linear comprehensive evaluation index to reflect the economic activity more comprehensively.In measuring the degree of industrial structure change,this paper introduces two dimensions of the rationalization level of industrial structure and the advanced level of industrial structure,respectively discussing the coupling degree of industrial structure and employment structure and the influence of the development degree of tertiary industry on the level of population urbanization.Above all,this research uses the panel data of 31 provinces/cities/autonomous regions from 2000 to 2016 to construct a panel data fixed effect model and panel data vector through a series of data preparation processes such as panel data stationarity test,cointegration test,F test and Hausman test.The autoregressive model empirically studies the relationship between urbanization level,economic growth level and industrial structure change degree in the whole country.In the end,the paper got the following conclusions:(1)The goodness of model fitting and the significance of the coefficient of introducing nighttime lighting data are significantly better than the traditional model,indicating that it is feasible and reliable to measure the level of economic development by constructing nighttime lighting data and comprehensive evaluation index of per capita GDP.(2)In the improved model,the promotion effect of the economic growth level on the urbanization rate of the population is slightly weakened,and the impact of the degree of industrial structure change is significantly enhanced.(3)Economic growth has a significant positive effect on the urbanization level of population in all regions,and the positive effects in the eastern and central regions are higher than the national average.(4)The level of rationalization of industrial structure has a significant positive impact on the urbanization level of population in all regions.This positive impact is particularly evident in the central and western regions,exceeding the national average.(5)The impact of the advanced level of industrial structure on the urbanization level of population in different regions is quite different:in the eastern and western regions,the impact between the two has a significant positive impact,and this positive impact in the western region exceeds The national average is about 16%.In the central region,there is a significant negative effect between the two.The innovations of this paper are as follows:The first point is to put the population urbanization,economic development level,industrial structure advanced and industrial structure rationalization into a complete system for qualitative and quantitative analysis;the second point is to measure At the level of economic growth,this paper introduces the corrected nighttime light image data.Because the intensity of light is closely related to the level of regional economic development and human activities,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index of nighttime lighting data and per capita GDP through objective weighting method.To assess real economic growth from a more comprehensive perspective;it also refines the limitations of the two dimensions in which most studies do not involve changes in industrial structure.The shortcoming of this paper is that when dividing the geographical area,the traditional method of dividing the geographical location of the eastern,central and western regions,with reference to the newly introduced“new first-tier cities”,according to the first-tier cities,new first-tier cities,second-tier cities,and third-tier cities.The region is also a feasible method;in addition,because the provincial data is difficult to collect,some of the indicators in some provinces and cities have no data to obtain,and the magnitude of the missing is large,so it can not be included in the empirical research.