Research On The Impact Of Digital Financial Inclusion On Labor Mobility And Its Economic Consequences

With the rapid iteration of Internet technology,the widespread popularity of smart devices and the orderly development of the financial industry,digital inclusive finance,as an emerging financial form,has made leapfrog development with the continuous integration and innovation of traditional finance,and promoted the gradual maturity of China’s digital financial market.Digital inclusive finance refers to a new model that promotes the development of inclusive finance by supporting financial services through information technology,which is conducive to reducing information asymmetry,reducing transaction risks of financial services,expanding the coverage of financial services,and creating a favorable environment for the convenience of financial services for enterprises and individuals.In February 2023,the Overall Layout Plan for the Construction of Digital China issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and The State Council made a top-level design for China’s digital China construction,pointing out that digital technologies should comprehensively enable economic and social development,build an inclusive and convenient digital society,and provide an important engine for promoting Chinese-style modernization in the digital economy era.It also promotes the transformation of China’s industrial structure to make corresponding adjustments and coordinated development under the background of the rapid development of digital inclusive finance.Using the data of cities and counties across the country as samples,this thesis conducted an empirical study on the impact of digital financial inclusion on labor mobility,and further promote rural revitalization and industrial structure optimization.First of all,this thesis introduces the background and significance of the research,sorts out the literature on digital inclusive finance,labor mobility,rural revitalization level,industrial structure optimization,etc.,and discusses and summarizes the necessity of this research and the existing research results.Secondly,it defines key concepts such as digital inclusive finance,labor mobility,rural revitalization level and industrial structure optimization,analyzes financial and economic theories related to digital inclusive finance,labor mobility,rural revitalization level and industrial structure optimization,and elaborates the development status and characteristics of digital inclusive finance,rural revitalization level and industrial structure optimization in detail.Thirdly,the following three aspects are studied from the empirical point of view.The first is to study the impact of digital financial inclusion on labor flow,and explore the transmission mechanism of the impact of digital financial inclusion on labor flow from two aspects of increasing financial supply and improving consumption level.Then,it studies whether the impact of digital inclusive finance on labor flow is heterogeneous in East,West,northeast,continuous net inflow areas and non-continuous net inflow areas,and how it affects employment rate,industrial structure and population structure,and analyzes whether digital inclusive finance still affects labor flow at the county level.Second,the thesis empirically tested the impact of digital inclusive finance on the level of rural revitalization at county level.On the premise of basic principles and theoretical basis,the entropy method was used to measure the level of rural revitalization at county level in China,the evaluation index system of rural revitalization level was constructed,and the differences of rural revitalization and development among counties and four regions were evaluated.And the difference of sub-index of rural revitalization level;This thesis analyzes the influence of different dimensions of digital inclusive finance on the level of rural revitalization at county level,and examines the transmission mechanism of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspectives of attracting labor inflow,promoting the upgrading of rural industrial structure,and improving residents’ consumption level.The heterogeneity analysis of five sub-systems,four regions and their relationships,different employment levels,urbanization promotion degree and so on is made.The third is to study the influence of the spatial correlation of labor flow on the optimization of industrial structure,construct the spatial correlation network of labor flow by using the modified gravity model and social network analysis method,and test the influence of the spatial correlation of labor flow on the optimization of industrial structure by using the spatial measurement method based on the theory of new economic geography.From the perspective of regional innovation and entrepreneurship level,the transmission mechanism of labor flow spatial correlation affecting industrial structure optimization is demonstrated,and the spatial spillover effect of labor flow spatial correlation affecting industrial structure optimization is tested.Finally,on the basis of comprehensive theoretical explanation,current situation analysis and empirical test,the thesis draws a conclusion that digital inclusive finance plays a role in labor flow,and then affects rural revitalization and industrial structure optimization,and puts forward targeted policy recommendations.The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows.First,the study of digital financial inclusion on labor mobility finds that the development of digital financial inclusion is conducive to improving the labor attraction of the region,increasing the inflow of labor or slowing down the outflow of labor.The development of digital inclusive finance is not only conducive to the upgrading of rural industrial structure,optimizing the rural entrepreneurial environment,and creating entrepreneurial opportunities,but also can increase a large number of jobs,broaden farmers’ income channels,optimize the labor force structure,improve farmers’ income level,and ensure sustained economic growth in rural areas.This thesis also proves through empirical methods that digital inclusive finance can enhance labor attractiveness by increasing financial supply and improving consumption level.However,this conclusion has obvious heterogeneity.The heterogeneity analysis of the impact of digital financial inclusion on labor flow in the East,East,East and northeast shows that the positive impact of digital financial inclusion on labor flow is mainly concentrated in the central region,and its impact is significantly positive at the level of 1%,while the impact on the east,west and northeast is not significant.The main reason may be that the eastern economy is more developed,the labor force is more inclined to flow into the city,the development degree of digital inclusive finance is not attractive to the return of labor force,and the marginal utility of digital inclusive finance is low.However,due to the backward economic development and poor geographical location in the western and northeastern regions,the influence of digital inclusive finance on the return of labor force is difficult to popularize and expand in a short time.The heterogeneity analysis of continuous net inflow areas and non-continuous net inflow areas shows that the positive impact of digital financial inclusion on labor flow is mainly concentrated in the cities with non-continuous net inflow,and its influence coefficient is positive and statistically significant.There is no significant effect on the cities with continuous net inflow.In the further analysis,the research on the impact of digital inclusive finance on urban employment rate finds that digital inclusive finance can significantly improve the employment rate.In terms of industrial employment rate,digital inclusive finance has no significant effect on agricultural employment rate,mainly improving non-agricultural employment rate.Digital inclusive finance will significantly promote the rational distribution of labor among various industries and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure;The research and analysis on the change of permanent residents and registered population found that the development of digital inclusive finance was conducive to improving the attractiveness of the city’s permanent population,increasing the inflow of permanent residents or slowing down the outflow of permanent residents,but had no significant effect on the flow of registered population.The main reason may be that the change of registered population is more affected by the current household registration system,and the difference of policies in different cities may lead to a large difference in the movement of registered population.The cross-city settlement of population is still restricted by education,work,age and other aspects,so the influence of digital inclusive finance is not obvious.Using county-level data to verify the impact of digital inclusive finance on county-level labor flow,it is found that digital inclusive finance promotes the county-level labor flow by increasing the county-level financial supply and improving the county-level consumption level,and is also conducive to promoting the county-level permanent population flow,but has no impact on the change of county-level household population.This result is basically consistent with the situation of the impact of digital financial inclusion on urban labor mobility.Based on the conclusion of the impact of digital inclusive finance on labor flow,this chapter has certain enlightenment significance for China’s population flow,institutional reform,industrial structure optimization and upgrading,new-type urbanization construction,and rural revitalization strategy policy implementation.Second,the research of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization found that digital inclusive finance significantly promoted the development of rural revitalization at county level.Based on the analysis of the mechanism,it is found that the influence coefficients of the coverage breadth of digital finance and the degree of digital transformation of inclusive finance on the level of rural revitalization in counties are positive and statistically significant,while the use depth of digital finance has no significant influence on the level of rural revitalization.Further use of payment,insurance,monetary fund,investment,credit and credit sub-indexes to make an empirical test of the impact of the county level of rural revitalizati,the results show that only two sub-indexes,insurance and monetary fund,have a significant impact on rural revitalization,while the impact of payment,investment,credit and credit needs to be explored and improved.The research on the transmission mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting the level of county rural revitalization found that digital inclusive finance can improve the level of county rural revitalization by attracting labor inflow,promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and improving the consumption level of rural residents.However,this conclusion has obvious heterogeneity among the five sub-systems of rural revitalization.The influence of digital inclusive finance on the five sub-systems of rural revitalization level at county level is mainly in the aspects of industrial prosperity,rural culture and life prosperity.The heterogeneity analysis of the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization level in the four regions shows that the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization level at county level is not significant in the east and northeast,but is significantly positive in the central and western regions,and the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization level at county level is more significant in the western region.To further explore the impact of digital inclusive finance on the sub-system of county-level rural revitalization in different regions,the research finds that: in the eastern region,the impact of digital inclusive finance on the five sub-systems of county-level rural revitalization is quite different.Among them,the ecological livability index and governance effectiveness index are significantly negative,and the other subsystems have no significant influence.In the central region,the impact of digital inclusive finance on the five sub-systems of rural revitalization level at county level is significantly positive for industrial prosperity and rural culture.In the western region,the five sub-systems of digital inclusive finance on the level of county rural revitalization are mainly in the aspects of industrial prosperity,ecological livable and effective governance,and the impact coefficients are higher than the national impact coefficients.The results also conform to the four regional heterogeneity tests,and the central and western regions have the most significant impact.In Northeast China,the impact of digital inclusive finance on the five subsystems of county rural revitalization level is mainly in the two aspects of industrial prosperity and rural culture,but the impact on life prosperity is negative,and the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization in Northeast China is still very limited.The effect is significant in areas with medium and high employment rate,and the higher the employment rate,the greater the effect.The impact is more significant in areas with moderate urbanization,while it is not significant when urbanization is promoted too fast.Thirdly,the study of the spatial correlation of labor flow on the optimization of industrial structure finds that: The Moran I index is used to demonstrate that there is a significant spatial correlation between the changes of industrial structure in different regions of China.According to the coefficient of the spatial lag term of the Moran I index and the spatial econometric model,it can be seen that the optimization of industrial structure in other regions will positively affect the optimization of industrial structure in the local region.The spatial correlation of labor flow significantly promotes the rationalization and greening of industrial structure,but has no effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,indicating that labor force elements can be better allocated in the optimization of industrial structure.The research on the transmission mechanism of the influence of spatial correlation of labor flow on the optimization of industrial structure found that the spatial correlation of labor flow significantly promoted the rationalization of industrial structure through the improvement of urban innovation and entrepreneurship,but the synergistic promotion of the spatial correlation of labor flow and the improvement of innovation and entrepreneurship level on the greening and upgrading of industrial structure has not yet played an effect.From the perspective of univariate of regional innovation and entrepreneurship index,the coefficients for industrial structure rationalization and greening are significantly positive,indicating that the stronger the innovation and entrepreneurship vitality of a city,the greater the effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure of the city.From the positive spillover effect coefficient of labor flow on the rationalization and greening of industrial structure,labor flow in different regions can not only promote the rationalization and greening of industrial structure in this region,but also help to promote the rationalization and greening of industrial structure in other regions.Moreover,the spatial spillover effect accounts for more than 50% of the total effect,indicating that the mutual influence of inter-regional labor flow on the optimization of industrial structure cannot be ignored.Based on the above conclusions,this thesis puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions: first,improve the software and hardware infrastructure of digital inclusive finance to give full play to the intrinsic value of digital inclusive finance;Second,give play to the internal linkage mechanism of labor force factors and guide the orderly flow of labor force factors;Third,innovate the support mode of digital inclusive finance to enable rural revitalization,and continue to promote the construction of livable and career-friendly rural areas;Fourth,reduce the obstacles to the free flow of labor and gradually and orderly promote the evolution and upgrading of the industrial structure;Fifth,we need to break regional restrictions and coordinate the new pattern of regional development in the eastern,central and western regions.The main innovations of this thesis are as follows: First,from the perspective of research,the impact of digital financial inclusion on labor flow is comprehensively analyzed,and rural revitalization construction and industrial structure optimization are included in the research framework.(1)Although some scholars have begun to explore the relationship between digital financial inclusion and labor force,they mainly focus on static aspects such as labor force allocation,utility and structure,and there are still relatively few studies on the impact of digital financial inclusion on the dynamic flow of labor force.This thesis systematically and deeply analyzes and demonstrates the impact of digital financial inclusion on labor force flow.The research literature related to digital financial inclusion and labor mobility has been enriched and expanded,providing new ideas and new evidence for the rational optimization of labor mobility.(2)This thesis not only explores the impact of digital inclusive finance on labor flow from multiple aspects such as regional location and continuous net inflow of labor,but also examines the changes and effects of employment structure and the positive effects of digital inclusive finance on industrial structure optimization from the perspective of the impact of digital inclusive finance on agriculture and non-agricultural employment rate.The changes and differences of population structure are investigated from the perspective of the differences of employment,permanent resident and registered population mobility of digital inclusive finance,thus providing a new idea with certain reference significance for guiding the reasonable smooth and orderly flow of labor force factors.(3)Further incorporate rural revitalization construction and industrial structure optimization into the research framework,and discuss the internal links among digital inclusive finance,labor mobility,rural revitalization construction,and industrial structure optimization.On the basis of traditional industrial structure optimization,it innovatively expands the research on the greening of industrial structure,scientifically constructs the green index of industrial structure,and enriches the relevant theoretical research on industrial structure optimization.Second,in terms of research methods,entropy method,social network,spatial measurement and other methods are used to analyze the spatial correlation between rural revitalization,labor flow and industrial structure optimization.(1)Construction and evaluation of the rural revitalization index system.Based on the entropy method,this thesis measures the rural revitalization index at the county level in China and optimizes the evaluation index system of rural revitalization,so that the constructed index system can scientifically and accurately evaluate the level of rural revitalization in each county.(2)Based on social network analysis,the revised gravity model is adopted to build the spatial correlation network of labor flow,and the network topology and centrality of the spatial correlation of labor flow in provinces and urban areas are analyzed,which enricates the research on inter-regional labor flow.(3)The spatial lag variables of industrial structure were included in the spatial econometric model for empirical analysis,which enriched the research methods of industrial structure and scientifically analyzed the spatial spillover effects of the spatial correlation of labor flow on the optimization of industrial structure.Third,the research data,including prefecture-level city and county multi-level data,digital inclusive finance,population structure,industrial development and other multi-dimensional indicators.(1)The study of the impact of digital inclusive finance on labor force and the optimization effect of industrial structure is mainly based on the study of prefecture-level city data,which has important practical significance.(2)The data dimension of rural revitalization research uses the county level.Compared with the existing literature on digital inclusive finance,which is mainly provincial and prefecture-level city,the innovation of this thesis lies in going deep into the county sample level,analyzing the relationship between the development degree of digital inclusive finance at the county level and the level of rural revitalization at the county level,and exploring the new model of urban-rural integration.It provides some constructive thinking directions for rural revitalization.(3)The research uses the digital financial inclusion index,different demographic structures such as working population,permanent population and registered population in different regions,and data of different dimensions such as economic development,industrial structure,living standards and environmental indicators.