| Manufacturing industry is a important pillar industry in China,which has made important contributions to economic and social development,technological advancement and employment expansion.For more than 40 years of the reform and opening up,the added value of the manufacturing industry has risen year after year by virtue of the advantages of factor endowments such as labor and capital.In 2010,it surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest manufacturing country.In 2019,it accounted for nearly 30%of the overall output value of the global manufacturing industry.Over the past five years,the annual added value of manufacturing industry has steadily accounted for 29%-30%of GDP.China has formed an industrial system with strong innovation capability,and has greatly improved in terms of scale,product technology content and market concentration.However,in recent years,the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is gradually weakening due to factors such as the continuous aging of the population age structure and rising costs.During the past decade,China’s economy has changed from a stage of high growth to a stage of high-quality development,and the implementation of innovation-driven strategy and accelerating the transformation of traditional industries is the urgent need to optimize the economic structure of manufacturing industry and enhance the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Therefore,in this context,this paper is designed to study the relationship between China’s manufacturing structure optimization and industrial development.Due to the importance of technological innovation in the process of industrial structure optimization and economic development,the mediating transmission effect between manufacturing structure optimization and industrial development as well as the dynamic relationship among the three variables of manufacturing structure optimization,technological innovation and industrial development,has been further explored in this paper,in order to guide the benign interaction between manufacturing structure optimization and industrial growth and further optimize production factor resources.This study is mainly carried out from the following three aspects:(a)In this paper the manufacturing industry classification index is designed and by using Wald cluster analysis,China’s 28 manufacturing categories are divided into labor-intensive,capital intensive and technology intensive industries.According to the industrial classification of China’s national economy in 2017(GB/T 4754-2017),in accordance with the relative intensity of labor,capital and technology in various industries,designing three indicators of gross value of industrial output per capita,proportion of fixed assets and R&D expenditure intensity,Wald cluster analysis is carried out to divide China’s 28 manufacturing categories into three sub industries.(b)Taking the optimization of manufacturing structure to promote industrial development as the research goal,the research hypothesis of the intermediary effect of technological innovation has been put forward,and R&D intensity and invention patents have been taken as the measurement indicators of technological innovation in the whole manufacturing industry and various classified industries respectively.By using the bootstrap intermediary effect test method,the mediating transmission effect between manufacturing structure optimization and industrial development is empirically discussed.The results show that:for the whole manufacturing industry and the three sub industries,R&D intensity,as an intermediary variable,has the greatest contribution to industrial development from the rationalization of labor-intensive industrial structure,and the highest contribution to industrial development from the upgrading of capital intensive industrial structure;as an intermediary variable,invention patents have the greatest contribution to industrial development in the rationalization of technology intensive industrial structure,and the highest contribution to industrial development in the whole industrial structure of manufacturing industry.We can more clearly see the direction and focus of the optimization and adjustment of the manufacturing structure through the empirical analysis.(c)Based on the time series data of the whole manufacturing industry and three categories of industries in China from 2003 to 2016,the vector autoregressive(VAR)models among manufacturing structure optimization,technological innovation and industrial development are constructed respectively,and a variety of relevant econometric research methods based on vector autoregressive model are comprehensively used.In this paper an empirical study has been made on the dynamic effects among manufacturing structure optimization,technological innovation and industrial development.The results show that:for the whole manufacturing industry,there is a two-way significant and continuous promotion between technological innovation and industrial development;for labor-intensive industries,structural rationalization plays the most significant role in promoting industrial development,and industrial development plays the most significant role in promoting technological innovation;for capital intensive industries,the continuous promotion effect of structural upgrading on industrial development is the most significant,and the continuous promotion effect of industrial development on structural rationalization is the most significant;for technology intensive industries,structural rationalization plays the most significant role in promoting industrial development,and industrial development plays the most significant role in promoting structural upgrading.The empirical research of this paper makes up for the research on the two-way action mechanism of manufacturing structure optimization,technological innovation and industrial development in the whole manufacturing industry and various classified industries with the same method,and provides the corresponding theoretical basis and support for the follow-up research on manufacturing structure. |
PDF Full Text Request