Panel Cointegration Analysis Of Chinese Inbound Tourism Demand Factor

Inbound tourism is one of Chinese three major markets (inbound tourism overseas trip and domestic tour), with the booming of inbound tourism, it becomes more important to the development of Chinese economy. At present, the domestic scholars choose the entry tourism data of a province and a city or China inbound tourism overall data as the foundation, adopt sampling survey method, gray correlation analysis method and double logarithm model etc to analyze China's entry tourism attraction factors. Foreign scholars generally take income, population, exchange rate as main variables by establishing the mathematical model (such as ARIMA model, LLC model) to analyze the entry tourism demand factors.This paper mainly regards part of the province, municipality directly under the central government, autonomous regions as the research object, which by2010China inbound tourism receipts exceed more than1million people, and analyses the influence factors of tourism by synthesizing research results of every province and city. First of all, it makes the analysis of the Chinese tourism development conditions and the analysis of China inbound tourism from the international tourism demand trend, season influence and tourism price trend three perspectives. Second, it takes the number of tourist arrivals of research province and city as explanatory variables, and regards exchange rates, gross domestic product, the relative prices as explain variables to the provincial and municipal construction of the entry tourism demand model. Finally, it makes classification of inbound tourism demand model of all provinces and municipalities for empirical examiningIn this paper, it makes panel cointegration analysis and estimate mode of the number of the same tourist source country, provincial and municipal and the number of different tourist source country. It makes the following conclusion:their relative prices form tourist source country, provincial and municipal, gross domestic product, and the exchange rate are the three major effects on our country's entry tourism demand. Among them, the entry tourism demand in provinces has also been influenced by the number of tourist arrivals from a certain province. The Asian financial crisis in1997, the terrorist attacks on the United States9.11in2001, and the SARS pneumonia in2003have effects on our country's entry tourism demand in different degree and in different range.