The Aksu-Tarim River Basin's Sustainable Development Based On Ecological Carrying Capability

The ecological environment is the fundament of mankind subsistence and soci-economic growth. The problem of ecological environment deteriorating has become the global problem since 20th century, which threatens mankind exist and development, and forced people to think what way the society and economy should take in the future. Sustainable development(SD) was put forward and agreed by all people under this background. Now the hot point is how to use the theory of SD to prevent the problem of ecological deteriorating. It is considered that SD based on the theory of PRED at the cost of natural resource and environment cannot solve this problem thoroughly. The real meaning of SD should be developing both in soci-economic system and in ecological system.The Ecological Carrying Capacity (ECC) is the very kind of such quantitative measuring index to preserve the steady of eco-system, limit people action under the eco-system support threshold. Within a confined period limits, and under the condition of present exploitation of resources, the ECC means strength that a certain scaled eco-system could self-supporting and self-adjusting along with its support competence to carrying the intension of soci-economic activities and quantity of people living in some standard. From the definition of the ECC. it can be used as a very important criterion of judging whether the regional development is sustainable or not. So it is very important to carry out deepened research on the qualitative and quantitative side of ECC, Which could unveil efficiently the existing problems in regional development, explain how and why these problems develop and predict their influence on the future regional development. The research work on ECC could provide pertinent and operable countermeasures of harmonizing the relationships between the socioeconomic development and population, resources, environment. Because of those characteristics of ECC, the research on ECC can not only provide new interface, thoughts and methods of regional sustainable development study, but also put forward important decision support to the region sustainable development.This paper tries to measure ECC, predict the changing trend of the Regional CarryingStates, and carry out countermeasure research. In the final part of the paper, the Aksu-tarim Basin was chosen as a representative region to check the methods and theory mentioned above.The paper includes five chapters:The first chapter expounds the significance and heavy demands to strengthen the research about ecological problem and the theory of SD. And after carefully retrospection of the former research on Aksu-tarim Basin, the paper thinks that the theory of ECC should be attached importance. The second chapter introduces the concept, evolution of the theory of ECC. Then the scientific definition of ECC is given, the feature, connotation and importance of research of it is analysis, the condition and mechanism of ecosystem sustainable carrying is explicated. Based on the analysis, the paper thinks that the relationship between ECC and sustainable development is interdependent and importable. According to forenamed theory, the ECC and regional sustainable development index system and assessment methods are given in the third. The forth is case study. Guided by the third .the paper calculated and evaluated the ECC and the sustainable state of the Aksu-tarim Basin. According to the computing results, the ECC of Aksu-tarim Basin is declined from the source to the lower reach. Finally, the chapter carries out countermeasure research from the view of economy, resources and environment, and policy..