Prospective Risk Assessment Of Bohai Sea

The prospective risk assessment for the results of contaminants flowing into environment is the important basis of policies for environment protection. In China the development of marine resources was unilaterally emphasized while the environment protection was neglected so that sea areas are all polluted to some degree. In the past years, the ecosystem of Bohai Sea has been seriously destroyed. The prospective risk assessment of Bohai Sea is sure to be a constructive part in the environment protection.This paper is according to the Environmental Risk Assessment and Management of Bohai Sea, which is as part of the most important contents of the PEMSEA program funded by GEF/UNDP/IMO. Based on the currently popular risk assessment technique-RQ-based technique, some improvements are done and the prospective risk assessment of Bohai Sea has been accomplished.The main improvements are that:(1) A new concept is brought forward which is the concerned risk quotient (CRI) and CRI of parameters in water column is quantified.(2) Weights of the pollutants are got by the LCso and the integrated risk intensity is ascertained which is audacious domestically.(3) The natural risk agents are assessed for it is the necessity part in the territorial risk assessment.The results are:(1) Pb> Hg and oil are the priority risk agents to the whole sea and TSS^ DINK DIP-COD-. Cu are localized risk agents while Cd is the acceptable agent.(2) With the comparison of CRI, the most concerned agents are Pb>TSS> Hg>oil>DIN> DIP >COD>Cu>Cd.(3) In the human-health risk assessment, Cd and As are the most possible potential risk agents.(4) To the natural risk assessment:(1) With the statistic of the red tide in the past 50 years Liaodong Bay and Bohai Bay are the most frequent areas while June to September is the most likely seasons.(2) From November to next March there is frozen in Bohai Sea. Liaodong Bay is the most serious area among the three bays.(3) Windstorms in Bohai Sea are mainly caused by Temperate Zone cyclone. Coast of Laizhou Bay is the most severe disaster area. To the whole sea it most likely happens in autumn (September to November). And to Laizhou Bay the time is April.Though the risk analysis of Bohai Sea is discussed embedded there are something to be improved.1. For the lack of raw data the risk analysis is not mentioned but the method is applicable.2. The weight of nutrients should be studied further.3. As well as the natural risk assessment the technique by Lu Hongwei is maybe reasonable. With the special and temporal limitation it is not mentioned in this paper.