Research On Grey System Model And It's Application On Assessment And Prediction Of Environmental Quality

There are many ways and means of assessment and prediction of environmental quality. Regional environment is a complex control system with multi-objectives multi-layers and multi-factors. For the complexity of environmental phenomenon and lack of data, recent researches are focus on these uncertainty questions, and this uncertainty is the characteristics of grey system, which is the reason grey system theory is used here. Grey relevancy analysis is used to determine environmental quality level, grey classification is used to obtain the most important pollutant and theory of chemistry if the environment is used to reckon the power of pollutant in this study. According to grey system theory, we find differential equation:dX(1)/dt+aXm = u and it's outcome: X(1](t + 1) = (x(o)(l)--V +-, which can used\ a) a topredict environmental quality quantificationally. On the basis of former outcome, the precision of prediction model is analyze. When former grey system falls short of standard, twice simulation can be used to ameliorate it. It's not correct to say the more data is used the better model we get. As the development and movement of system, the model must be adjusted too.