| It is the key point in quantitively evaluating district sustainable development to determine whether the living condition of the mankind overrun the carrying capacity of ecological system or not.The ecological footprint(EF)method was put forward in 1992 by William E Rees,a Canadian ecological economist,and improved by his postgraduate, Wackernagel Mathis,in 1996.The method has been used to analyze and evaluate a district's ability of sustainable development from totally different angles.The concept,calculation method of the EF and its achievement was introduced in former part of the paper,then the data of recent 12 years' statistics of the Qingpu district was utilized to calculate the EF and ecological capacity in the district.Finally the EF was analyzed in terms of correlated facts.The results showed that:①The balance between EF(demanding to natural environment)and ecological capacity(supplied by natural environment)seems to be breakdown.The EF per person grew from 2.70hm~2 in 1995 to 3.18hm~2 in 2006.The total EF grew from 141.73×10~4hm~2 to 236.46×10~4hm~2,increased about 170%,and the ecological deficit in the district increased gradually from 2.06hm~2/cap to 2.79 hm~2/cap.②Its ecological capacity per person declined from 0.64 hm~2 to 0.39 hm~2 in recent twelve years.However,due to the increase of total capacity,potential ecological capacity is immerging into the district.③By comparing the results of EF calculations of Qingpu district with that of other regions,the status of Qingpu's development has been significantly in high level with EF 0.66 hm~2 per GDP.④There existed structural malposition between demand of EF and nature's supply(EC). Its land type is unitary and the area of energy land and cropland were relatively large.⑤The developing status of the district could be shown by calculating ecological footprint's diversity and development capacity.⑥The major factors affecting on the ecological footprint in urbanization were researched and analyzed by gray thoery.At last,some suggestions to alleviate ecological pressure from urbanization and to improve the quality of ecological environment were proposed.Compared with other domestic studies with EF,the significant characters of this study are as follows.①The conventional model of ecological footprint was improved and the actual land demand and supply of Qingpu district was assessed.In order to satisfy the comparison of different levels and different area range, the indicator systems of ecological footprint were suggested to set up. Few of similar improvement for ecological footprint model has been reported in domestic studies.②Based on gray theory,correlation between the change of ecological footprint and urbanization was investigated.Also,the major factors that would affect the change of ecological footprint in different stages of urbanization were discussed. The combination of ecological footprint and urbanization indicators would contribute to the improvement of partial ecology of EF model.③In order to overcome the static faults of EF Model,time-trend data(1995-2006)was adopted to calculate EF and good results was obtained,the structure and composition ratio of total ecological footprint were sysmatically analyzed in the study.
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