Study Of Improvised Decision-making Based On Serious Emergency

With the explosive growth of the population on the earth and the development of science and technology, human economic activities are increasing dramatically, the structures more complex, the scale expand continually, which causes the instability of human society and the domino effect. The mutual intertexture of the natural disasters and the human society activities causes serious emergencies with the characteristics of extremely destruction, complex chain reactions and rapid development. It is difficult to deal with the serious emergency in conventional way. What's more, there is no appropriate method to solve the problem. Thus, this paper introduces improvised decision-making into serious emergency management.Based on the organizational improvisation theory, this thesis makes an in-depth study of improvised decision-making during serious emergency from the standpoint of dealing with serious emergency quickly. The main research contents are as following:Firstly, the properties of serious emergency are first identified through comparative analyses in this chapter. The connotation and main characteristics of general decision-making, emergency decision-making and improvised decision-making are discussed based on the decision theory. What's more, this thesis puts forward the necessary of improvised decision-making in serious emergency. The chapter also analyses applied frequency and importance of improvisational decision-making in different stages during the emergency and for decision makers in different levels.Secondly, based on the organizational improvisation, this thesis proposes six hypotheses according the following influencing factors: organizational culture, organizational memory, organizational flexibility, leadership style, characters of the members and resource. After reviewing various decision models, this chapter refines the decision models shaped to serious emergency.Then, according to the typical and representative of the events, combined with the purpose of this paper, the typical serious emergencies in recent years at home and abroad are outlined, such as"9/11"incident, Hurricane Katrina, Chernobyl nuclear and Sino-us crashes are detailed analyzes and discusses in this chapter. In addition, due to the response to serious emergency tends to depends on multi-region, multi-layer and multi-sector rather than single institution or individual, it is of great importance to study the decision-making model. This part also studies the decision model through above typical cases. In order to deal with the serious emergency with the characteristics of complexity and uncertainty, the decision makers should make different decisions in the different stages, and different levels of decision-makers should apply different decision modes in the same time.Finally, on the foundation of knowing the impact factor to improvised decision-making processing serious emergency, this thesis puts forward further research, which can confirm the validity of the impact factor. In addition, this part also gives some corresponding policy suggestions response to serious emergency for the government in many respects, such as, crisis consciousness, decision-making model, leadership style, organizational flexibility, etc.According to all the studies on this paper, the author provides a new method to solve the serious emergencies quickly and correctly in the future, and fulfill the purpose that minimizes the loss of disasters. This paper also expects that the conclusion can provide a new mind to processing serious emergencies quickly in the future.