Study On The Emergency Decision-making Support System Based On The Evaluation And Selection Of Emergency Treatments Of Water Source Pollutions

At present our city was at a high speed in the process of urbanization, sudden water source pollutions occurred frequently with the characteristics of composite, diversity and unwieldiness which threatened the water security of resident seriously. Historical cases showed that emergency decisions of water source pollutions were always from the experiences of field specialist, which led to the inaccuracy. So lots of principles and technologies such as environmental engineering, CBR, AHP were applied to establish emergency decision-making support platform based on the evaluation and selection of emergency treatments，which could assist specialist in emergency decisions.The analysis results of367emergent water source pollutions in the range of1985to2013showed that pollutions occurred in spring and summer frequently and concentrated in parts of central and southern China. Chemicals and spilled oil led to the sudden pollutions most directly, which made up the ratio of49%and22%in the analytical samples. However, heavy metal and tailings were major pollutants which created sudden pollutions in recent years. Illegal discharge and traffic accidents were main risk sources and enough attention should be gave.Based on deep analysis on historical cases, the framework of knowledge representation was used to establish a comprehensive technical library and a case library of emergency disposal. Eight key elements were screened as the factors of case matching based on CBR, the property weight was confirmed by R-AHP and the similarity of cases was calculated by similar function.Based on the particularity of water source pollutions, the degree of threats was defined and the weights of the evaluation index system of emergency disposal technologies were confirmed with “threat-based”. Threat was divided into4degrees with the method of TCI, every threat corresponded to a set of weights of the evaluation index system of emergency disposal technologies established by AHP. By the combined utilization of two methods, the accuracy of technology-evaluation was ensured.Employing C#.NET, the emergency decision-making support platform was developed based on Visual Studio2008and the Oracle10g.The system was tested by some hypothestical cases. The results illustrated that the palform could retrieve the most matched cases and evaluate the emergency technologies accurately which could be helpful to make emergency decisions and to treat the emergent water source incidents.