Research On Quantitative Area Risk Assessment Based On Domino Effect Model

The safety integrity of chemical park is of great safety concern. On one hand, chemical park as a new form of chemical industry, developed rapidly these days, while on the other hand, the shortage of scientific safety management and technology in chemical park greatly affect the overall safety of chemical parks. In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the chemical park where high concentration of hazards involved, a domino-based model is introduced for modeling of the domino-caused risks in this paper. Briefly, the main research works and findings of this paper are summarized as follows:(1) The calculation of initial events frequency is an ever existing difficult in area risk assessment. A LOPA and FTA hybrid method is proposed in this paper to model the frequency of initial events. The problem of common cause failure which is difficult to deal with by the LOPA is resolved effectively by the new method.(2) The consequences of chemical accidents are modeled and associated computation program is provided. The escalation probability model triggered by the thermal radiation, blast overpressure and projectiles is proposed by analysis of the domino effect. A more comprehensive quantitative risk assessment methods based on domino effect is then proposed, where method of determining the most reliable failure unit is put forwarded in this paper.(3) Based on the theory of domino model, an area quantitative area risk assessment method is established which is helpful for the calculation of area risk. The concept of equivalent fatality number is also introduced in the evaluation of area risks.(4) A quantitative risk assessment software (DE_QRA) is developed under .NET framework. SQL Server is used to store basic information (such as material physical and chemical properties) in this software. The software is then applied in the assessment of the risk of a chemical park and the expected results are achieved.It should be noted that, the application of quantitative area risk assessment is more meaningful in the stage when the chemical park is under planning, rather than in the stage after it was constructed. The research findings proposed in this paper have been applied successfully in safety evaluation of a large chemical park. The assessment and associated recommendation proposed were then provided to authorities which is helpful for the planning, safety management and emergency response of chemical park.