Reliability Forecasting In Distribution Systems

Reliability is an important parameter for evaluating the capacity of electric supply to customers of an electric power system. Reliability is an important index of power utilities. It has been one of notable signs to value if power utilities are modern. Accurate power distribution reliability is the key request of modern electric power system plan and economy, advancing customer satisfaction. Management of power use is marketing, so power reliability is the important and key index we must face especially in today with the rapid development of the power cause.This thesis introduces the traditional power distribution prediction, including FMEA and reliability evaluation algorithm of distribution system. But it is very difficult to predict service ability of lager-scale and complicated power grid. Gray prediction based on historical data can not reflect all kinds of information that affects forecast quantity. To the deficiencies, this thesis proposed service ability prediction algorithm of longitudinal and traversed based on outage plan. Integration of marketing and distribution network's system statistics planned outage time by power failure plan. This thesis presents a forecast method of reliability based on association of portrait forecast method and landscape forecast method, portrait forecast method based on power failure plan calculates temporary power failure's time by contact of temporary power failure's reason and power failure's time. Horizontal forecast method of reliability calculates temporary power failure's time by gray forecast method which has virtue of need few sample and high accuracy. This method proves effective by analyzing distribution network reliability statistical data. It can provide new foundation to power grid operation and maintenance.