Study On Forecasting Of Urban Freight Transportation Based On Large Goods Distribution Point

In recent years,with the development of urban economy,the upgrading of industry,the division of labor and other social labor,making the development of urban social economy on the freight traffic has been higher and higher requirements.While the city’s freight traffic planning unreasonable making the contradiction between passenger traffic and freight traffic is becoming more and more sharp.Traditional research and practice at home and abroad has always been a heavy passenger traffic and light freight traffic.It is urgent to alleviate the problem that lack of adequate study of urban freight traffic forecast.Urban freight traffic is extremely complex,and exist many influencing factors.The urban large goods distribution point is the focus of urban freight gathering,freight demand is the most concentrated.In view of this,it is very necessary to study freight traffic forecast based on large doods distribution points for a reasonable,thereby provide theoretical guarantee for urban freight transport planning.Firstly,the thesis defines the concept of large goods distribution points,analyzes its connotation,summarizes the freight forwarding demand mechanism of large goods distribution points,the characteristics of urban freight and the influencing factors of freight transportation.Secondly,the forecasting model of freight generation with different types of freight distribution points and cargo types is studied by using traditional freight forecasting theory.Thirdly,analyzes the characteristics of goods connection of different types of large goods distribution points.Defines the original distribution points of the goods and the derived distribution points of the goods.And analyzes the freight distribution of the large goods distribution points.And propose the OD type selection impedance.The traditional freight gravity distribution model is modified to obtain the urban freight distribution model based on the large goods distribution point.And then,analyzes the influencing factors of freight vehicle selection and puts forward the selection method of urban freight vehicle type in combination with the traditional traffic mode division method.Summarizes the urban freight traffic management measures and propose the fuction of freight traffic management.Corrects the traditional passenger traffic distribution model to obtain the traffic traffic under urban traffic management allocation model.Finally,the main city of Chongqing as an example for analysis.The thesis provides some new ideas for the study of urban freight traffic forecasting for large goods distribution points.