Research On The Global Sensitivity Analysis Method Of Air Defense Missiles Weapon System-of-systems Combat Effectiveness

The combat effectiveness of Weapon & Equipment System-of-Systems (W&E SoS) is the measure of efficiency, which the W&E SoS reaches when it executes certain combat mission with expected target. It's not only related to the quantity and performance of various types of component equipments, but also related to the cooperation and using methods of these equipments. Besides, it's also affected by the combat environment and other factors. Therefore, the combat effectiveness of W&E SoS is of great uncertainty. To analysis and reduce the uncertainty, and identify the key factors that affect the combat effectiveness, is an important way to optimize the system structure and improve the combat effectiveness. Therefore, the study of combat effectiveness analyzing methods has important theoretical meaning and application value. The traditional combat effectiveness analyzing methods can only deal with several factors with narrow changing range, and it requires the relation between combat effectiveness and inputs cannot be too complex. Thus, it can't meet the requirement of the analysis of the combat effectiveness of W&E SoS. Therefore new methods are needed to analyze the complexity of the combat effectiveness of W&E SoS.Global sensitivity analysis method is research on the changes of model outputs which caused by the changes of model inputs. It can analyze the affects of model inputs on model outputs in a global scope, and the interaction between the model inputs. Therefore, global sensitivity analysis is suitable for the analysis of the combat effectiveness of W&E SoS.This dissertation takes a study on the global sensitivity analysis method of the combat effectiveness W&E SoS, with the object of air defense missile W&E SoS. Firstly, this dissertation discusses the basic concepts, components and typical operational process of air defense missile W&E SoS, provides the evaluation criteria and effectiveness index system of air defense missile W&E SoS, and builds the framework of the global sensitivity analysis of air defense missile W&E SoS. Secondly, build the effectiveness model of air defense missile W&E SoS using analytical method. According to the typical operational process of air defense missile W&E SoS, we build a model of radar detection probability, a model of missile launch probability, and a model of missile killing targets probability. Then, the global sensitivity analysis method of the effectiveness of air defense missile W&E SoS was specially studied. Using Sobol index method to analyze each factor's affect on the combat effectiveness, sort the factors by Sobol index, identify the key factors, and also analyze the affect of interaction between factors on the combat effectiveness. To solve the computational problem, Kriging surrogate model method was used. Based on sample data, approximate model was built. Based on this surrogate model, the calculation of Sobol indices was completed. At last, using the methods proposed above, a demonstration example was analysis.