Effectiveness Evaluation Of Missile Weapon System Based On System-of-systems Combat

In the new military reform tide, the most significant feature of modern wars is the system-system combat under the conditions of informatization. Weapon destruction characteristics, at the same time, shift from energy intensive to accurate hit. Propelled by the the military demands and technologic development, missile weapon performed an irreplaceable role in several recent regional wars. Accordingly, the effectiveness assessment of weapons has become an important research subject in both academic circle and armed forces departments. The effectiveness assessment of missile weapon system provides not only quantitative basis for the upgrades of missile weapon, but also assessment criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of missile weapon in war drills.The present paper firstly introduces the basic concept and common methods of the effectiveness assessment of weapon. Based on a thorough review of the theoretic fruit of effectiveness assessment of weapons both home and abroad, the present study aims to carry out effectiveness assessments and result analysis on a certain type of missile weapon system and its upgraded systemDuring the research progress, taking regard to the features of missile weapon system, the author establishes an evaluation index system to assess the missile weapon system’s effectiveness in emulational wars, on the base of a comprehensive analysis of the technologic tactics index of a certain type of missile weapon system and the whole drill progress. In the research, various index values are quantized, while the share of various ability of the missile weapon system is calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). With system-of-systems combat as background, the author initiates the classification of the system-of-systems combat, white-box combat system and black-box combat system, according to different mastery degrees of enemy’s intelligence. In the black-box combat system, intelligence on the enemy is insufficient. Here, The ADC method is in need to fully reflects the weapon system’s state and the over time dynamic changes of the multiple tactics and technologic index. Meanwhile,during the white-box combat system, the intelligence is adequate, which requires stage probability method, which is simple,intuitive and easy to understand to fully utilizes the confrontation information between the two belligerent parties in war process. Accordingly, it can be applied to the effectiveness assessment of weapons in particular combat mission.Through the two methods mentioned above to evaluate the effectiveness of a certain type of missile weapon system and its upgraded system, the research resultstwo assessment values of mission target accomplishment capability of the two missile weapon systems. Also, the comparative analysis upon the two values concludes that the upgraded system boast a better effectiveness than the original one. The research results provide data reference for the stereotype and utility of missile weaponsand serves as an assessment criteria to evaluate an army’s battle effectiveness in war drills.