The Research Of Space Load Forcasting Of Electrical City Distribution

The quantity and its location of loads should be forecasted in the distribution network planning, which also means loads spatial distribution. The nodes and lines planning could be done only after determine the spatial loads distribution correctly.Based on the Geographic Information System ( GIS ) spatial information analysis function, we study on the SLF. We propose a combined SLF method to extrapolate feeder load growth by using feeder's history peak value and the merits of gray theory and Genetic Programming ( GP ). At first, we adopt load transfer coupling method to correct load history and its error for load transfer. Secondly, we get the real power-supply area by using layer overlap analysis, based on practical feeder path and distribution GIS map layer. Thirdly, we adopt gray incidence degree method to cluster the feeder load growth curve. At last, we get the optimized curve fitting of every cluster by using GP method to process the gray cluster results. The real instance shows that this method has the better result than other trending methods, and it is fit for the limited computer resource especially.