The Synthetically Method On Evaluate Water Transport Safety Of ChangJiang River

This thesis give an introduction to the present situation of domestic water traffic safety state evaluation means and analyze the advantage and disadvantage to these means. To solve the main problem and defection, some new thought and mathematical model have been made. Through survey ? statistics and analysis of Changjiang River safety state, computations to the mathematical model are checked and the new evaluation criterion standard are established. The following conclusions are obtained by research :1. The present different evaluation means have not been suitable for the practical necessities, it is very urgent to setup the new assessing means.2. On the basis of analyzing the available evaluation means of Changjiang River safety, the main assessing parameters and the evaluation mathematical models have been established. To certain extent of the effect of some occasional factors have been removed in this mathematical model. It is better than the present evaluation means and has the practical value.3. The weight factor that adopts specialist' s consultation system to adjust the multiple items mishap target has been underway analyzing with to be fixed, , analysis the calculation style physics sense, Propose the criterion distinguishing that use P' s value is distinguished secure state good or bad. To make the longitudinal and transversal changes in the judgment of the safety of each area very easy and give the guidance to the management.4. Utilize 1986-1997 to be total to maritime affairs data of 12 years to unite specialist to consult the result has been underway the checking computations .to the evaluation setup , Two coincide essentially ,Demonstrate that the mathematical model tallies with against the actual situation .5. On the base of dissecting the Accident reason, Propose the Accident reason frequency analytic approach , made the Accident reason analyze forward . Through employ fresh means subordinate unit being living to try out , Trying out the result make known , The fresh means is more scientific than the old means . The fresh means can be better assessed on water , Intrinsic reason that the analysis Accident happens.The prediction of the state and pre-control means in certain water area suggested in the thesis have been proved . scientifically and practically in the application of the Maritime Bureau of Changjiang River. The mathematical model recommended in the thesis can be used outside Changjiang River after the corresponding adjustment and modification to the weight factor according to the expert advising system. It can be the guidance to the safety state evaluation in rivers of China. It can be believed that the principle of the means will be accepted by the vast personnel of safety management and be applied in other fields of safety evaluation as the comprehensive evaluation means of safety state proposed in this thesis are applied and implemented.