The Study Of Forecasting Pessenger Flow Partaking Rates And Selecting City Track Transportation Types

With the speed up of urbanization in our country, the city population is more and more intensive; the traffic hustles, accidents and the pollution of the environment are more and more serious. Setting up city track transportation system is the way to solve the traffic in the cities, and to realize substanable development. There have tow reasons: first, city track transportation has many merits, great capability, quick speed, safety on time, low cost, saving energy, catabatic traffic block on the ground, protecting the environment and so on; second, though track transportation, the develop derection of city constructure turns from single-center homocentric cirlarity mode to multi-center axes mode. So it is worth discussing how to forecast passenger flow partaking rate and how to select the type to adapt the city develop.First, the process of the city track transportation is mentioned. It is sorted, and the tecnical economic characters are analyzing.Basing on the tradional logit model and utility theory, passenger flow partaking rate is studied in the city track transportation, so is the trip behavior decision. Aimming at the process of trip behavior decision, the deficiency of logit model is discused, and the doorsill analise is introduced.With being discussed city development level, economic benefit, social benefit and item's feasibility, the elements affecting city track transportation type choice is studied. And from social welfare, the economic benefit is put emphasis on: starting with the benefits of tripper and operator, it is studied respectively under three conditions, maximal social welfare, maximal social welfare with no operating profit, and maximal social welfare considering govenment allowance and business income.Finally, city track transportation economic evaluation are discussed from three facet: financial evaluation,contry economic targets and analysis of uncertainty.