The Study Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Its Ecosystem Services Values In Haihe Basin

With the economic development and living standard improvement, the water request and demanding became higher and higher, which drive our coutry, whose per capita owning amount of water resources is originally in the low-level of the world, into a severe state. Especiallyin Haihe Basin, with the lower water resources carring capacity and lower water environmental carring capacity, the conflict between economic development, ecological environmental protection and water resources utilization has been more and more severely. Based on the sustainable development princeple, this thesis focused on studying the water resources carrying capacity and water eco-environment carrying capacity in Haihe Basin. Adopting macro-economics water resources model, the metric-economy demonstration analysis model, the theory and evaluation of water resources ecosystem seveices values,etc., and the technique of multiobjects scenario analysis, it set up a coupling model and a visual DSS, to analyse the relation between the balance of supply and demand of water resources and the economic system under different economic development models in this basin, investigate their impacts on ecological environment, then, according to the result of analyse, put forward the rational future economic development model and distribution of water resources.This thesis mainly probed in the following several respects. First, based on multi-objective and multi-hierarchy macroeconomic model, the demonstration analyses theory from metro-economy is introduced to build a holistic economy and water demanding prediction model in order to analysis the supply and demand of water. Second, it set up a holistic modeland DSS to analyse carrying capacity of water resources based on the above model, which is specially carried on to Haihe Basin. Third, introducing the evaluation theory of ecosystem service, it set up an appraisable system of ecosystem service values of water resources, which is specially carried on to Haihe Basin too. Fourth, it coupled the evaluation theory of ecological service function and the holistic analysis model of water resources carrying capacity for a try, and then set up the analysis mechanism of regional macro-economy, water resources and ecological environment, which carried on a preliminary research of carrying capacity of ecological environment of water resources in Haihe Basin.