Study On The Quick Assessment Model For Economic Loss Of Flood Disaster In PoyangLake Area

Flood disaster happens frequently in the Poyang lake area, which constrains the local social economic development. After the flood of 1998, we recognize that flood control needs to integrate engineering measure with none-engineering measure, and pay more attention to none-engineering measure. Based on the RS and GIS technic, toward flood disaster character and social economic development in Poyang lake area, the study target of this paper is to explore the technology and method of flood disaster quick assessment, aiming to provide technology foundation for scientific flood control and none-engineering measure developing, and to serve the harmonized development of social economic and entironment.This paper analyses relationship between economic loss of flood disaster and social economic development in Poyang lake area, designs collectivity framework of flood disaster loss quick assessment on the GIS and RS technic basis, establishes the flood submerging simulation model, the calculation model of flood loss rate and the flood disaster loss assessment model based on GIS spatial information gridding, and achieves social-economic data spatial distribution. This paper assesses the flood disaster loss in Poyang lake area from three facts. Firstly, using After-disaster assessment system, this paper assesses flood disaster direct economic loss and disaster population, and validates the feasibility and reliability of the model by comparing the result with the truth; secondly, if the 98 type and 83 type flood happen, the submerged character is simulated after returning grain fields to the lake in the Poyang lake area, two types flood disaster loss are assessed by forward-disaster forecast assessment system in the condition of social-economic current development; thirdly, if this two types of flood disaster happen in 2010, the disaster loss are forecasted by forward-disaster forecast assessment system, meanwhile the social economic data is the social economic target in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan of JiangXi province, after that the direct economic losses are assessed year by year from 1995 to 2004, "s" cure (Peeling) is used to forecast the direct economic loss if the 98 type flood happens, the comparision of this two results proves the forecast assessments credible.The results show that the technic and method system of flood disaster loss quick assessment is applicable and reliable based on the GIS technic, it can supply reference to land use planning, flood control planning, industrial structure adjustment and industrial distribution, checking the situation of the disaster, restoration followed the flood disaster and so on, and be more used in the application of flood control and command, emergency rescuing disaster, flood control engineering benefit assessment, and flood disaster insurance compensation.