Reliability Research On Urban Transit Network

To encourage using transit network is one of important methods to reduce traffic congestion. The reliability of transit network attracts its users; however, transit system affected by numerous random factors, such as weather status, traffic accidents. Transit system has randomicity and complexity. At present the index that used in evaluating transit network service level is normal performance index usually, it already can't satisfy the request of planning and management. This dissertation use the reliability research results of road network for reference and make a useful exploration in reliability evaluation of transit network, attempt to introduce probability performance index to transit system as an effective approach which improves transit system service level.This dissertation based on summarizing research results of reliability analysis domestic and abroad, analyzing development problems in the Beijing public transport, discusses reliability system info establishment on urban transit network, defines some reliability indexes using reliability indexes of road network for reference, provides some index calculation methods and comparatively analyzes them. In the reliability evaluation key technology, emphatically put forward connectedness reliability arithmetic based on substituted path, considering reliability affected by the factors of travel costs, irreplaceable path and shared path, at the same time put forward the arithmetic of using Monte-Carle method to calculate travel time reliability index. Finally, take Huilongguan residential area as actual case to analysis and acquire the conclusion that connectedness reliability is preferable and travel time reliability is baddish in this area, hereby to table a proposal to improve the transit service level for this area.