Evaluation And Decision-making On Projects Of Power System Planning

With the utility deregulation and market operation in China, the economic factor has been increasingly important in the construction poject decision-making of power system planning. At the same time, the work of project evaluation and decision-making is facing new challenges because of some new characteristics, such as complication of decision factors, the increase of uncertainties, diversification of decision subjects, and etc. To solve these problems, this dissertation has made research as follows:(1) A new Interval Net Present Value (INPV)-based method for the economic evaluation of electric projects resulting from planning is presented, which can deal with the electricity price fluctuation.First, the concepts of interval cash flow and interval rate are presented to model the uncertainty of cash flow. Then, the evaluation method considering the fluctuation is proposed. Additionally, a method to measure the risk of project is also put up. A case is given to study the effects of the electricity price fluctuation on the project evaluation. In which, the Total Risk Point, Neuter Risk Point and Zero Risk Point of the fluctuation for a project are defined, and then the acceptable scope of the fluctuation for the project can be gained. Moreover, the flexible adjusting principles for the interval cash flow and methods to calculate the available fluctuation parameter of electricity price are provided.To sum up, this method can take into account the particularity of electric projects and economic uncerties at the same time. What's more, it can not only judge the economical feasibility of the projects, but also estimate the risk of projects. Thus the presented method is an efficient and flexible evaluation tool suitable for electric projects, which can offer decision maker (DM) more comprehensive economic information.(2) A new comprehensive method for projects'evaluation and decision-making of planning is proposed, which is based on interval analytical hierarchy process (IAHP) and interval binary programming.