Study On The Flood Forecasting System In The Middle And Lower Reaches Of Xijiang Watershed

The high forecasting accuracy, long available forecasting period, complete system function, and flexible system operation, are supposed to be the symbol of modernizing flood forecasting system.. Study of advanced flood forecasting system will increase flood forecasting accuracy efficiently, extend available flood forecasting period, intensify the scientific of the flood control and anti-drought direction decision-making, and more fully display disaster-decreasing benefit of hydraulic engineering.Against the shortcomings of traditional forecasting system, this dissertation discusses the effect of modern flood forecasting system in flood prevention and disaster decrease by the way of much more advanced NFFS, and takes actual flood forecasting in Pearl River Basin as example. NFFS has powerful function, and can enhance programming efficiency of flood forecasting schemes greatly. After completed this system, it is first extended in middle and lower reaches of Xijiang watershed, and built the special flood forecasting system..Program environment, forecasting model, forecasting method, system composition, and main function of NFFS are produced particularly in this dissertation. Generally speaking, we establish special forecasting database of flood forecasting system in middle and backward of Xijiang watershed, by the way of general interface of system model base and Xinanjiang Model; establish forecasting schemes in middle and lower reaches of Xijiang watershed with system model' s building function; study model parameter calibration, and contrast Rosenbrock and Simplex, which have been integrated in this system; discuss the influence of parameter' s initial value and iterative times to optimized result, and set up model parameter base finally; put this middle-and-lower-reaches-of-Xijiang-watershed flood forecasting to simulate season in 2006, which completes every kinds of hydrology forecasting service, and acts so great in flood prevention task of middle and backward of Xijiang watershed in 2006．At last, TOPMODEL is used in the middle and lower reaches of Xijiang watershed, and compared with the result of NFFS. It is showed that TOPMODEL can be applied in this studying watershed preferably, own great applicability, and deeply support the theoretical basis for developing NFFS' s model base.