Application Research Of Road Network Reliability Evaluation And A Case Study In Beijing

Road network system is the important basis of a modern city and region's development. At present, our country faces the worsening traffic problems. The primary reason is the imbalance of transportation supplies and demands. Therefore, in order to better solve the traffic problems, we should do the research of the evaluation and analysis of traffic conditions, which can ensure urban sustainable development, to improve the traffic running quality.As the road traffic system is a huge integrated dynamic system, the existing non-probability indices don't reflect the road network fluctuations and the ability of dealing with it, such as saturation, network capacity, average speed and so on. It is necessary to establish urban road system running probability indices. As one of the most effective probability indices, reliability indices can quantificational evaluate the dynamic road network conditions. At the same time, it can provide the important reference for the long-term transport planning and management, improving the quality of people's trips and so on.Based on the above analysis, the thesis firstly summarizes the status quo of a research on the performance reliability assessment of road network system. Secondly, it analyzes the characteristic of representative reliability indices such as connective reliability, travel time reliability and capacity reliability. It provides a theoretical foundation for the reliability research. So far the reliability research mostly focuses on the theory, application research is rare. Then, it provides the definition of the road network reliability and defines the content of network reliability on the basis of our network reliability application needs and the status quo of the data. And it presents the reliability indices applying to large-scale network reliability analysis, namely connective reliability based on the identification of pivotal intersections and segments and travel time reliability based on the statistics. Finally, the thesis demonstrates the application of two reliability indices by presenting the application examples of connective reliability based on pivotal intersections and segments and travel time reliability based on the data logs from taxis in Beijing. It can provide the foundation of the theory and the application.In short, the thesis presents connective reliability and travel time reliability fitting for the large-scale network reliability analysis. The indices not only have a solid theoretical foundation, but also with a strong application value. The thesis which is the basis of reliability research provides the scientific basis for the road network construction and traffic management.