Schedule Risk Analysis Of Large-scale Construction

Construction projects, especially the state's key investment projects often have such character as enormous scale of investment, long construction period, technical risk and economic risks. And there are often impact by the ecological environment and many other uncertain factors. As result it is often conduced that the consequences of the actual construction of the project have some degree of departure from what people had expected.Schedule control is one important goal of three: the project investment control, schedule control and quality control, which has a direct impact on the other two goals executing. When the schedule of the project was out of control or was substantially delayed, the contractor should not only increase the human power and material to compensate progress, but also have to pay liquidated damages of the delay. What's more, the investor can not benefit from the construction product. It is seriously affected multi-stakeholder. Therefore, it is of great importance to have a reasonable control of project schedule, which derived form accurately prediction of the schedule of the project and estimation of quantitative risk impact.Therefore, this thesis set large-scale construction projects' schedule as study aim, conbined actual construction project with theory, expanded the risk analysis method which we had up to now, and proposed a new method used the perspective of economic profit and loss assessment to measure progress risks, which deeply extented the current hot research topic of risk estimation.In this paper, the following areas were focused on:(1) Network planning technique. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique theoretical assumptions has been summed up; The defect of the three time estimation method has been pointed out when application, and some recommendations for improvement of three time estimation method has been given.(2) Risk dynamic effects. Based on duration uncertainty from the impact of factors, and the perspective of quantified risk dynamic impact, try to put forward the concepts of risks dynamic effecting curve and caculating methodology.(3) Economic estimation of schedule risk. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCS) and the time-cost model, the net present value of the project has been simulated.