Research On Safety Evaluation And Trend Analysis Of Xiangjiang River

The water traffic safety is a huge system engineering. To establish a long effect system of safety management is an urgent mission for the government departments. But how to evaluate safe condition of maritime traffic systemly, reasonably and accurately, is an important foundation work to establish the effective safety management mechanism.Theory circle at home and abroad pays special attention to the theory of safety evaluation, which shifts from qualitative and empirical evaluation to quantitative evaluation. In the last decade, the trouble tree, analysis method, misty mathematics, gray theories, artificial nerve network, FSA etc. theories also gradually drive broadly used for the analysis and evaluation to the navigation system. methods such as five method of target, safe comprehensive valuation method, safer method of five index sign methods, synthesize the safe index number method etc. which in the different history the period creation leads the aggressive function, but these quantities turn to over-emphasize to the research of the cycle time quantity of the safe appearance and can not cover the total condition of marine safety, which has obvious shortage in aspects of prediction and real-timing. Therefore, compared with ocean safety evaluation, research on evaluation of inland waterway is lag.Based on investigation and widespread inquires from relative authorities and experts, evaluation index systems were set up from two sides of hidden index and accident index by applying the system engineering theory, safety evaluation model was set up using Uncertained Mathematic model after considering the characteristics of Xiangjiang River. Then, analyzing and comparing the frequent-used ways of fixing on the weights of indices, the weights of indices were fixed on by the methods of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy. Using relative theories of Uncertained Mathmatic, measure function model equations were set up. According to collected information, the total safety condition of Xiangjiang River would be evaluated. Finally, marine safety development trend of Xiangjaing River in future was predicted through using Grey prediction method to predict every index.The results of this paper will be of great significance to the set up of evaluation index system and collection of evaluation methods, and then will be reference for the authority to perfect the effective safety management system.