Study On Risk Assessment Of High-pile Wharf In Inland River Based On Hierarchical Grey Theory

With the rapid development of inland river shipping,inland river wharf,as an important part of inland river shipping,is an important hydraulic structure that undertakes the main functions such as ship mooring,loading and unloading goods and passengers boarding and disembarking.Its reliability and safety are very important.Due to the particularity of the environment,inland river wharf,especially the high-pile wharf in the inland river,not only has a lot in common with the general port wharf,but also has a lot of different characteristics from the general port wharf.In the construction of high-pile wharf in the inland river,there are many potential risk factors in every stage from planning stage,design stage,construction stage to the operation stage.Therefore,it has important practical value that carrying out risk evaluation research on high-pile wharf in the inland river for strengthening risk management of major infrastructure projects.Combined with the first-phase project of Xisheng port area in the three gorges reservoir area,based on the characteristics of the high-pile wharf in the inland river and the grey theory,it has carried out the risk assessment study on the high-pile wharf in the inland river by using the hierarchical analysis risk management method in this paper.The main results are as follows:(1)In the four different stages of planning,design,construction and operation of high-pile wharf in the inland river,based on the general wharf engineering risk assessment and combined with actual projects,the risk source analysis in the construction stage was emphatically supplemented and improved.The risk assessment index system of high-pile wharf in the inland river was newly established.This system contains 20 third-level indicators and 29 fourth-level indicators,among which 7 third-level indicators and 25 fourth-level were included in the construction stage.(2)Considering the risk factors of the high-pile wharf in the inland river complex and hierarchy between the various risk factors,based on the grey theory,using hierarchy analysis risk assessment methods,with “little information-simplified-digital” as general train of thought,it has establishes the grey evaluation matrix and the hierarchical grey risk evaluation method for high-pile wharf in the inland river.(3)Taking the first-phase project of Xinsheng operation area as an example,it has been applied the risk evaluation index system and hierarchical gray evaluation model of high-pile wharf in the inland river established in this paper.The evaluation results are as follows: the overall risk level of this wharf construction is between general risk and high risk;the risk in the four stages was ranked from the largest to the smallest as the construction period >the operation period>the design period>the planning period.The total evaluation results of construction risk are similar to the total result of index system method in the guide.Compared with the recommended method in the guide,for the risk evaluation of construction period,this method is more targeted,less influenced by subjective factors and more objective,the indicators are more specific and digital.(4)According to the risk evaluation index system and hierarchical grey evaluation model of high-pile wharf in the inland river,the evaluation system has been programmed by Visual Basic6.0,which is convenient for the practical application of the method in this paper.At the same time,the risk prevention and control measures can be suggested according to the evaluation results.