Forecasting Serviced Bridge's Remaining Life And Evaluating Its Reconstruction Program On Grey System

Assessment of the serviced bridge is the preparatory work of the bridge's maintenance and reinforcement, in accordance with the bridge's assessment results to determine that whether there is a need for maintenance to the bridges. The forecast of the bridge remaining life is a very important respect of the assessment, therefore, researching the methods of predicting remaining useful life of the existing bridge is of great significance. To a bridge, there is a selection of a rational conversion program, so that the funds available maximize the benefits, in the same time the bridge can be reinforced in the most effective.According to grey nature of a bridge's assess factors, the paper mainly used grey system theory to research. Based on the old information, present information and non-deterministic information, grey forecast, as a grey model(GM), was established to forecast the change-tendency of the system, which provides the foundation for layout and decision. The paper exploration and research the using of theory of grey system to forecast the remaining useful life of the bridges and evaluate of the conversion programs. Papers first introduced the basic theory of grey system, including the principle of modeling and testing methods, and then according to the characteristics of a bridge's life prediction, the paper adopted the improved GM (1, 1) model and grey - exponential smoothing model to predict a bridge's technology life and economic life respectively. Carries on the appraisal to the bridge is mainly to make a better decision-making, namely to a bridge whether needs reinforcement reconstruction. If the bridge needs to carry on the reconstruction, we should select the best reconstruction plan. The paper has conducted the exploration research to the bridge reconstruction plan's assessment method, using the ash interrelatedness and the analytic hierarchy method union to appraise the bridge reconstruction plan.