Analysis On Comprehensive Transportation Demands Fluctuation And Application In Transportation Reserve Capacity Caculation

Transportation demands fluctuation, which is the attendant phenomenon of the increasing, leads to the deviation between transportation supplies and demands. Thus it embarrasses the optimal allocation of transportation capacity and induces the instability of transportation industry. Therefore, conducting empirical analysis of transportation demands fluctuation and researching its characters, mechanisms and processes could open out the basic information for the optimal allocation of transportation capacity, and facilitate transportation industry to fit the development of society and economy. Just as the fluctuation of macro-economy, transportation demands fluctuation has its own rules. Nevertheless, compared with the full-developed business cycle theories in economics, theories and analysis on transportation demands fluctuation are in the period of exploring. This thesis is a practical attempt based on the business fluctuation theories and transportation business fluctuation theories. It also could guide the fitness between the transportation supplies and demands both in theory and practice.The study of the thesis consists of four parts as follows: Firstly, according to the time series isolation model the thesis conducted comprehensive transportation demands index. It makes use of the monthly data and could reflect the relative movement of the transportation demands as the time going on. Secondly, the thesis analyzed the growth cycle fluctuation of the demands index and calibrated the measurement indicators of the growth cycle fluctuation for both freight and passenger transportation demands. Thirdly, combined with the macro-economics index, the thesis studied the fluctuation relationship between transportation demands and macro-economy. It also depicted the mechanisms and processes for freight transportation demands fluctuation and passenger transportation demands fluctuation separately. Finally, based on the time series isolation model of transportation demands, the thesis proposed the calculation model for transportation reserve capacity. Using this model the thesis forecasted the aggregative fluctuation in the next fluctuation cycle, and calculated the reserve capacity coefficient the transportation system should maintain.