| The quantity of water is rich in Hunan, but it has many problems such as uneven distribution of space-time; prominent seasonal shortage of water resources; frequent drought in Hilly Areas. With a rapid development of industrial and agricultural economy and the accelerated process of urbanization, all types demand of water growing and the contradictions between supply and demand become more and more serious. While water consumption increased, waste water emissions increased, waters pollution became more serious, water quality decreased year after year, frequent water pollution emergencies, water resources security problem becoming more serious.Based on the study of hydrology and water resources, this paper determined the most representative and easy to calculate factors of water resources security indices. This paper evaluated the status quo of water resources security of Hunan Province from two aspects: water quantity and water quality, the research results and conclusions are as follows:(1)This paper analysis on the status quo of water resources security of Hunan Province and did the prediction, based on the effects from natural changes and human activities. The water availability and water demand were predicted by norm method and the theory of GM(1,1) combining of mathematical and statistical methods, and the water safe degrees in 2010 and 2030 of Hunan Province were predicted. In 75% of the guaranteed rate, the water safety degree is -12, belonging moderate insecurity, in 2010, -8, belonging basic insecurity, in 2030.(2)The water quality safe degrees of each region of Hunan Province were calculated, using the water quality of the functional areas. The calculated results show that the security situation of water resources in Hunan Province is not optimistic. From 1991 to 2006, water quality in all of the 14 regions appeared unsafe, it is more serious in drought years, such as 2003 the province's serious drought, reaching unsafe thirteen, accounting for 92 percent.(3) By the establishment of drinking water safety evaluation system, the drinking water safe degrees of Hunan and each region of Hunan Province were calculated, using the latest status of drinking water in rural areas in Hunan Province survey findings, referencing to "rural drinking water safety and health evaluation index system," enacted by Ministry of Water Resources and Ministry of Health in 2005. The province's total insecurity degrees is 32, belonging serious insecurity, water quantity insecurity degrees is 9, belonging basic insecurity, water quality insecurity degrees is 20, belonging serious insecurity. From all over the city situation, the total insecurity degrees in the first three is Changde City 46, Yueyang City 43, Loudi City, Xiangxi autonomous regions and Zhangjiajie City 36 degrees, belonging serious insecurity. (4) The institute evaluation system in this research is easy of actual operation, and the evaluation results consistent with the actual situation in Hunan Province, it has important reference value with Hunan Province water resources planning and other related policy development... |
