Forecast And Assessment For The Capacity(Saturation) Of Tianjin Main Channel

Channel is an integral part of the port,fairway through capacity has a direct impact on the play of the port through capacity,so determining the match capacity of the fairway through capacity and the entire capacity of the port is an important component of the planning of the port.But the fairway's own conditions and the complexity of the large number of external factors bring the calculation of the fairway through capacity a lot of difficulties,the calculation method is not perfect,the study of the method of calculating capacity is premature.Based on the research results of the existing transport capacity,study limited channel capacity through mathematical model through the perspectives of static and dynamic;Based on the existing ship arrived in Tianjin Port and the forecast of the future Shipping throughout,make use of the mathematical model to complete Channel capacity of the existing assessment,from the point of the through capacity of the fairway to evaluate the feasibility of the expansion programme.Firstly,research the port of Tianjin Port system features,make use of the methods of statistical data analysis to identify the ship's arrived in Tianjin waters laws and a computer to fit the historical data;And through researching the system facilities of Tianjin Port(including terminals,parking,loading and unloading equipments, Anchorage,fairways,etc.)to analysis the whole of the Tianjin Port's capability of handling,and make use of theoretical analysis to analysis and research.The whole aviation system features.Secondly,establish the mathematical model of the limited channel capacity on the basis of the traditional model of the field consider the channel width conditions to establish the limited channel capacity of the static field model.On the basis of the traditional queuing theory theoretical descripe the limited channel service model,and establish the limited channel capacity of the dynamic vacation queue model. Finally,assess the current and future Tianjin Port main channel through capacity, calculate the current capacity of fairways through of the Tianjin port,test the model, and amend the model,and make the use of the amended model to predict the main channel saturation level of Tianjin Port in 2020,and evaluate the planning for the future path of parameters by this.