The Assessment Of Shipping Risks In The Three-Gorges Ship Lock

In the course of the development of the research of risk assessment theory, researchers put forward many new assessment methods which were applied in the practice. Due to the complexity of shipping environment and variables in the Three-Gorges Ship Lock, shipping risk can easily occur. The assessment of shipping risks in this region by employing appropriate method makes great sense not only for the safety operation for vessels, but also for the ensuring for the operation of Yangtze Golden Waterway and the regional economy development.In the thesis, the dynamic state of the study on the concept of risk, risk management process and techniques are reviewed. The advantage and disadvantage of relevant risk assessment models and tools are also analyzed, among which we adopted the risk inspection method, Delphi method, Fault Tree method, scenario analysis, AHP method and the coupling of different models to the study according to the actuality of the shipping in the region.For the Three-Gorges Ship Lock navigation risks, the paper put forwarded a systematic risk assessment including accident risk programming, risk identification, qualitative and quantitative analysis, risk responding, monitoring and control. Based on the accident risk's probability, its historical data and theoretical analysis, the paper analyzed all uncertainties and accidents' risk factors, to work out their probabilities and influences to the navigation. Via AHP method and Fault Tree method, it analyzed and evaluated both subjective and objective risks, to gain a classification and probability importance degree for the possible accidents in the Three Gorges navigation, so as to set up a risk identification, monitoring and assessment model for Three-Gorges navigation; it also analyzed risks spreading routes and influences. According to these analysis, the paper set up the architecture and methods for the Three-Gorges navigation risks emergency system; based on the positivism, via the "causing mechanism - developing course - prevention and control" analysis on the navigation accidents, it brought up with an operable Three-Gorges navigation accident alert and prevention management system project which can identify, prevent and parry the navigation risks in the ship lock, and cut the loss to the lowest level.