Study On Evaluation And Prediction Of Urban Water Resource Sustainable Utilization

Water is the basis for human survival and development, and an important strategic resource for the support of sustainable socioeconomic development. Nowadays, the shortage of water resource is a common issue all over the world, while its sustainable utilization is an effective approach to solve the problem. On the basis of previous research, a comprehensive sustainable utilization evaluation method was proposed and the prediction method was chosen. The northern coastal city-Dalian was taken as an example. This study has the following aspects:(1) The significance of the water resource and the crisis which the urban water resource sustainable utilization is facing were stated. The domestic and abroad development of water resource in terms of the index system, evaluation method and prediction method was reviewed. A targeted index system, based on the characteristics of northern coastal cities of China, was established. The meanings of the indicators were stated in details in this thesis.(2) Catastrophe progression method and entropy weight model were combined to evaluate sustainable utilization level of water resource in Dalian from year 2002 to 2012. Results indicated that, except the year 2010 which lied in the medium sustainable grade, the other years were weak or extremely weak. There were five main factors affecting the results: seawater intrusion index, water resource exploitation and utilization, urbanization level, proportion of tertiary industry and industrial wastewater discharge compliance rate.(3) To make up the disadvantage of GM(1,1) method which is only suitable for single exponential growth, GM(1,1) method and linear regression method were combined and used to predict the water resource sustainable utilization level of Dalian from year 2013 to 2017. Results showed that the general sustainable utilization level of water resource had a tendency to decline; the sustainable utilization of water resource was in the medium level from 2013 to 2015, and would be weak in 2016 and extremely weak in 2017, respectively. The analysis on the indicators of each year implied that the decline was mainly attributed to the bad performance of the indicators of seawater intrusion index, urbanization level, the proportion of tertiary industry and industrial wastewater discharge compliance rate.(4) The countermeasures and safeguards of water resource sustainable utilization in Dalian city were put forward according to the results of evaluation and predication in terms of water resource, social, economic and environmental system.