Yuxi Ship-lock Throughput Prediction And Analysis Of Influencing Factors

Ship-lock throughput is a key index to measure inland navigation development, and there are many influencing factors. According to grey disaster prediction principle and the characteristic of linear regression to suit short-term prediction, this paper puts out the combination forecast method and applies it in Yuxi ship-lock throughput prediction modeling. As to the Yuxi throughput in the next few years, this paper obtains the aberrant value by using GM(1,1) model to predict the possible aberrant date points and predicts other non- aberrant date points by the application of subsection linear regression functions. The paper applies the calculation method of grey correlation degree in grey system theories to analyze social and economical elements' influence on Yuxi ship-lock throughput and confirms that hinterland port throughput is the optimum influencing factor of Yuxi ship-lock throughput, so that the decision-making basis of Yuxi ship-lock expansion is provided.