Study On Yunnan Highway Traffic Development Strategy Index And Forecast Model

As the pace of the state infrastructure construction to speed up. The cause of Yunnan highway traffic develops rapidly. Road traffic tension has been effectively alleviated. However, as Yunnan exchanging with neighboring provinces expands further and the economic globalization accelerates,the traffic problems become increasingly serious. The main reason is Yunnan regional differences in economic leading to layout of the road unreasonable, road geading low and The pace of development incompatible Etc.In this paper, According to the specific situation in Yunnan Province, divided the complex system of Yunnan road traffic development into a number of subsystems by goals decomposition. Decompositted layers select the appropriate indicators, then established overall, long-term, forward-looking Yunnan long-term development strategy of road traffic index system. Including a major indicators, 9 minutes and 37 indicators based on indicators. To resolve the future direction of traffic, development goals, planning and measures such as a series of problems. So we can monitor the Current situation of Yunnan highway traffic major factor in the development through feedbacking the numerical indicators. We can detect and correct the problems that exist in the Highway building, to reverse the trend timely, for managers to provide the right decision-making, guide future direction of development of Yunnan highway construction. Select the appropriate method forecasts the index system in Yunnan road traffic subsystems for qualitative and quantitative forecast through the research and analysis application. Mainly include traffic volume and maintain passenger cars, a volume of passenger and freight transport traffic development indicators and the development of highway network indicators, the road hub layout, conservation development, servic trends and emergency development. Based on predicting these indicators to determine the appropriate numerical indicators to describe the scale of development, trends and effectiveness of the Yunnan highway traffic in the next 20 years.