The Research On Forecasting Reasonable Development Scale Of Highway Network

Highway transportation plays an increasingly important role in integrated traffic system with the development of society and economy. Analysis of the rational developing scale is the foundation for guiding the development of road network planning. The prediction of Highway scale is the important and basic component of planning road network. Reasonable development scale of highway network can satisfy Highway traffic demand and save the building cost.In recent years, the researchers have made a good deal of study about the rational developing scale of the regional highway and achieved great success in this field. The most commonly used method is building the mathematical model by analyzing the relationship between the scale and the influence factors. Due to the influence factors of the highway network scale is more complicated, choosing the factors which have significant influence to Highway scale is the key to achieve success in the process of building model.On the basis of the analysis of existing methods, this article improves the Land coefficient method Combined with the actual situation of area. Considering the development of social economy is the source of highway traffic demand, this article chooses population factors and economic factors as the analytic object, finds the relationship between them and the scale, builds the model by using the theory of Cobb-Douglas production function. This model can reflect the influence which the increase of population and economic development plays on the demand of the highway network scale. With the development of society and economy, the construction of Highway turns from increasing the quantity toward the improving of the quality, therefore, this article chooses the equivalent mileage as the forecasted object. At last, this article chooses Anhui province as analysis object, calculate the highway scale and reasonable hierarchical organization of highway and verifies the Prediction model effectiveness and feasibility.