Research On The Critical Technology Of Western Shenzhen Waters Traffic Safety Early Warning System

The transportation business is an important material production department in national economy. It plays an important effect to promote the development of social productivity, promote the flow of goods and personnel, improve people's life and consolidate national defense. With generation and development of transportation, the safety problem that it brings becomes the topic that people have been discussing and studying all the time. For many years, domestic and international experts have been engaged in the research of the maritime traffic safety. So broadness and depth of research work of maritime traffic accident are developed to some extent and have made certain achievement. The evaluation method of the maritime traffic safety becomes perfect day by day. However, the research of early warning of water traffic safety is relatively less.With the development of Shenzhen's economy, the western Shenzhen water has become very busy and the water transport environment has become complicated, leading to frequent water traffic accidents including water pollution accidents. On the basis of the research of early warning theory from home and abroad, early warning theory was applied to water traffic safety in the western Shenzhen water and an early warning system was established, aiming to prevent the occurrence and development of water accidents, reduce the damage and loss caused by the accidents and ensure the sustainable development of Shenzhen's western navigation.Combining the monographic study that long-term management mechanism study on shipping safety of the West of Shenzhen, also risk model and the key indicators research on early warning and pre-control system of maritime traffic safety in Shenzhen, together with the group this paper carries out the following tasks:On the basis of the research on the western Shenzhen water, this paper analyzes its current navigation environment. Based on the analysis of a number of water traffic accidents, the regularities of western Shenzhen water's traffic accidents in space and time and the main causes of the accidents are obtained. This thesis makes the research in the following three aspects: ship types, ship density and natural environment. Bayes probability reasoning model is used to analyze the sensitivity of triggering water traffic accidents from the above three factors. The extent of the impact of the traffic safety on the water is calculated. Thus, a reasonable single-factor early warning system is established.Early warning indicators and early warning system model is the key to early warning system. In this thesis, on the basis of analyzing the causes of water traffic accidents, by interviewing with the experts on Shenzhen water traffic safety management and on-site frontline workers, referring to safety situation analysis report and relevant literature, considering the ease of data collection, this thesis proposes water traffic safety early warning indicator system in Western Shenzhen water. Then a comprehensive early warning model of water traffic safety is established by the use of fuzzy mathematic theory.Finally, considering the current situation of maritime administration resources in Western Shenzhen waters, the water traffic safety early warning system in Western Shenzhen water is studied.