The Passenger Demand Prediction For Airport Line Of Rail Transportation

Recently, the demand for air transport grows rapidly, and the volume of the airport has been increasing. With the development of science and technology, aircraft design and manufacturing has improved continuously, the resulting capacity of the air transport and flight speed of a substantial increase in the improvement of the airport terminal resulted in increased traffic and air travel time. At the same time, the airport to the city center to extend the distance of transport, passenger travel time from the airport extension. Relative air traffic, the time of ground transportation and the lower level of service and other issues highlighted gradually have become a cause constraint to the further development of China's air traffic.Rail transport for its punctuality, fast and efficient characteristics of the connection between the city and the airport transport system gradually play an increasingly important role, and will become development direction with the transport links between the large airport and urban.Passenger demand forecast is an important basis of the necessity and feasibility of building about airport lines of urban rail transit, for its order of magnitude and scale of spatial and temporal distribution characteristics is an important indicator of urban rail transit system to choose the airport line standard, line and site and operation of the system to build.In this paper, both the international airport rail transit line, based out of in-depth analysis of the characteristics of airport ground transportation, as well as the existing rail transit line characteristics of the airport, follows the "four stages" method of prediction analysis, through analysis of the forecasting connotation of knowledge, give full consideration to the airport rail transit line features, and the flexibility to make use of it, states the passenger demand forecast work processes, use Logit mode to mode split, the Analytic Hierarchy Process Determining the weight of the utility function, predict distributing rate of the air rail transport line. And Xi'an Xian yang International Airport as an example, to verify the above theory, it shows that the model has a direct and practical characteristic from an example.