The Development Mode Of Electric Vehicle Industry Based On System Dynamics Model

As the country's pillar industry, the automotive industry with an extensive upstream and downstream industry chains plays a more and more important part in China's economic development. During recent years, with the maintaining 8%of GDP growth speed, GNI per capital increases and also the retain number of automobile in china improves. Though automotives provide convinent life style, it causes heavy air pollution and oil consumption. Electric vehicles upgrades the automotive industrial structure greatly by the advantages of ultra-low emission and using clean energy, then becomes a necessary choice.As China's emerging strategic industry, the layout of Electric vehicle industry has been in breeding. Therefore, the state and governments at all levels take serious attitude towards the electric car industry's development and planning strategy. Enterprises and academic experts from all fields participate actively, then gain a mass of scientific researches outcomes. However, most scientific researches focused on the innovation of electric vehicles skills, the developing situation of foreign electric car industry as well as the overview of policy support. Therefore carrying on qualitative and quantitative research on the development model of Electric vehicle industry becomes vigorous and actual for a station to set out reasonable development Policys.In this paper, the development of electric vehicles in China as the research object model, using system dynamics model was constructed, refined the economic, environmental, energy and technology development level four elements. Combination of gray theory, technology maturity, expert survey, etc. parameters of the model, quantitative analysis of the electric car the size of demand and supply. Model of consistency through the outline amount of testing, parameter validation testing and extreme testing to prove its reliability.Chapter 1 is the introduction part, discusses the topics of the research background and motivation, analysises of the theoretical and practical significance of the dynamic model of the electric vehicle industry, introduces the research ideas and methods; Chapter 2 is the literature review section. reviewes some literatures related to some research methods of industrial development and industrial systems dynamics; Chapter 3 Constructes a model framework of this study. Builds a dynamic model of electric vehicle industry on the basis of some related research and literature, Chooses the appropriate model for testing methods; Chapter 4 is the part of policy simulation and analysis policy. Firstly, the data is collected based on various national yearbooks, secondly, the value is determined according to the calculation of the parameters, all the data are entered, then model reliability is tested. The non-policy emissions and total energy consumption are simulated, finally the demand number of electric vehicles under three kinds of national policy are simulated, as well as the actual amount of electric vehicles,the major pollutant emissions reductions and the amount of crude oil savings. Chapter 5 is the conclusion and outlook section, the best development path is found by comparing the gap between supply and demand, development policy recommendations are put forward for industrial development in different stages. Subject researches are summarized, recommendations related to electric vehicles production are proposed, and finally, the shortcomings are poined out and future research are prospected.