Analysis Of The Effects Of Passenger Dedicated Line To Regional Economical Development

According to the "mid-long term railway network plan", China will build 16,000-thousand-kilometer-long passenger dedicated lines (PDL) and 4000-kilometer-long intercity passenger dedicated lines. These lines will form a network of passenger dedicated lines which connects more than 30 large cities. With the development of networking and scalization of passenger dedicated lines, the socioeconomic impacts is becoming more and more apparent. How to evaluate the effects of passenger dedicated line to regional economical development systematically and scientifically is an important problem in the area of traffic planning. It is beneficial to making developing planning for future passenger dedicated lines and improving the road networks to promote the balanced development in different areas by discussing its relationships between passenger dedicated line and regional economical development. This paper builds a complete set of theoretical framework and mathematical models by transport economics, econometrics and system theory in order to measure the effects of passenger dedicated line to regional economical development. The content of the paper are completed as follows:(1) Description of the connotation and characteristics of passenger dedicated line and regional economical development. The current situation of the development of high-speed railway at home and abroad and the theoretical basis of effects between passenger dedicated line and regional economical development are analyzed. On the basis of above theory, the necessity of the effects between passenger dedicated line and regional economical development is provided.(2)The economic characteristics of passenger dedicated lines are analyzed. The economic characteristics derive the mechanism:the operational effect, developing effect and ripple effect. The existing quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis are concluded. The advantages and disadvantages and the conditions of application are analyzed. Moreover, the existing models and methods are improves. The models and methodological framework are obtained by quantitative analysis combined with qualitative analysis. (3) Combined with the examples of the economic effects of Wuhan-Guangzhou PDL to Hunan province, the effects between each other are analyzed. The correlation degrees between the mathematical models and factors are analyzed by correlation degree study, The relationship models between factors and GDP in Hunan province is analyzed by regression analysis and gray forecasting analysis. At last, some indirect acting factors are estimated by analogy method. The economic contribution degrees between Wuhan-Guangzhou PDL to Hunan province are evaluated synthetically.