The Operating Speed Prediction Model Based On The Synthetic Influence Of Human-vehicle-road

With the highway construction developing rapidly, the problem of highway traffic safety was becoming increasingly severe. In addition, an important factor affecting it was the highway alignment design. To ensure the trafic operating safely, highway alignment must meet the requirement of vehicle operation characteristics while it was of continuity, equilibrium and coordination. And the highway alignment being safe or not for vehicle operating can be evaluated with the highway safety evaluation system, and the key elements of which is the reasonable operating speed prediction model.Because the prediction model, which was established by actually measured data regression, was not good of universality and suitability, this paper gave a research on theoretical operating speed prediction model in light of Vehicle performance, mental condition of driver and ride comfort theory.Desired speed was one of important factors affecting the accuracy of predicted speed. Initially, the thesis respectively gave a definition to the maximum running speed of the car and truck from the mental condition of driver and vehicle performance. And then, it made a research on the desired speed of different types of vehicle on the different grade and designed speed highway based on the influence of driver's mental condition by the cross section of highway and speed limit contion.The paper respectively gave a research to the operating speed prediction model of car and truck based on the vehicle's mechanical equilibrium and ride comfort of the horizontal alignment of highway. To the predicted speed of car and truck on the slope road, this paper made it based on the vehicle performance and driving operation for vertical alignment of highway. It also made study for the predicted speed of truck on the long steep downgrade based.On the basis of different types of vehicle, the thesis defined the main and the secondary speed from the two predicted speed based on the horizontal and vertical alignment of highway. After analyzing the mechanism of effect that horizontal and vertical alignment gave on the travel speed of vehicle, the paper respectively integrated two speeds based on car and truck by amending the main speed with the secondary speed. And it established the the prediction model of operating speed based on conbination alignment of horizontal and vertical section at last.A demonstration and analysis of this model and a comparion of predicted and measured speed on experimental road proved that the model was reliable. Theoretical operating speed graph was got according to the design data of the test sections. The actual speed was got by survey. It was proved that the model for forecasting theoretical operating speed was exact and applicable by the comparison of the actual speed and the theoretical operating speed of corresponding point.