The Potential Impact Of Climate Change On The Distribution Of Three Commonly Used Medicinal Plants

As an important part in our plant resources, commonly used medicinal plants have a dominant position in the Chinese herbal medicine market. This research’s objectives are to clarify major environmental factors affecting the distribution of three kinds of commonly used medical plants (including Lonicera japonica Thunb.,Belamcanda chinensis (L.)DC.and Evodia rutaecarpa (Juss.) Benth.)in China based on national and annual scales, to give the distribution of medical plants and its environmental suitability divisions, and to give decadal dynamic distribution of medical plants environmental suitability in China based on future climate data in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), in order to provides the theory basis for native habitat protection of commonly used medicinal plants, biogeography research and protection and sustainable utilization, etc.In terms of the information of geographic distribution selected from plant herbarium and a large number of literature, together with the Maximum Entropy Model (MAXENT) and the spatial analyst function of ArcGIS9.3 software, major environmental factors affecting the distribution of commonly used medical plants in China would be clarified, medical plants potential distribution and its environmental suitability would be revealed and decadal dynamic distribution of medical plants environmental suitability in China in the future would be analyzed furthermore. The main results are as follows:(1)The distribution of three kinds of commonly used medical plants in China is simulated well in terms of the Maximum Entropy Model and the selected dominant environmental factors. Unsuitable, marginally suitable, highly suitable of medical plants potential distribution in China are given according to the prediction presence probability. Furthermore, the characteristics of the dominant environmental factors in each climatic suitability zone are analyzed.(2) Bio 11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter) and Annual Sunshine Hours is the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of three medicinal plants on annual scale in China. Soil factors is less important than climatic factors, in which the importance of the temperature is greater than precipitation.(3) Biol2 (Annual Precipitation), biol (Annual Mean Temperature), biol1 has the trend of increase in the future, however, the regional difference of bio 12 will increase, the regional difference of bio1 will reduce. The magnitude of change from the current to the 2050s are greater than changes from the 2050s to the 2070s in the 21st century for biol1 and bio4 (Temperature Seasonality).(4) Decadal dynamic distribution and climatic suitability of three kinds of commonly used medical plants to climate change in China are simulated in the study. Medical plants distribution and climatic suitability sensitive area to decadal climate change are given. Furthermore, decadal planting potential area of medical plants in each climatic suitability zone and distribution boundaries are given. The results show that future climate change could lead to suitable habitat areas of three kinds of medicinal plants in China a definite increase. So these three kinds of medicinal plants can be relatively for protection priorities of medicinal plants in the future.