Forecasting And Managing Information System For The Rice Pests In Anhui Province

Managing Information System(MIS) for the rice pests in Anhui province,the diagonosis system for rice disease and the forecast system for main rice disease in Anhui were studied in this paper.MIS for the rice pests was set up by the application of ASP technology on B/S system structure.The whole system was composed of 5 modules that included note system,news column,inquiry of disease and pest,change password and exit system, guestbook with such functions as press replease,inquiry of disease and pest by choose different region and station,change password and exit system,messages.The user was divided into general administrator and sub-administrator.Different administrator could use different function.The system will greatly improve the prevention of rice pests in Anhui province.The forecast for rice pests was studied systematically.According to the regional characteristics of the climate,geographic location and the occurrence of rice diseases division(that was,divided into southen Anhui,middle Anhui,southwest Anhui and the region along Huaihe river in Anhui),the database was established by using the historical data.Stepwise discrimination analysis was selected through a variety of statistical methods,and relationship between meteorological factors and the three major rice diseases were analyzed.Then the mid-long-range forecast models for rice sheath blight damaging early season rice,single season rice and late sease rice in southwest Anhui and southen Anhui was set up by stepwise discrimination analysis,respectively.The percentage of the results' corresponding to historical data was 80.65%,79.25%,89.23%, 85.52%,90.65%and 88.52%,respectively.The mid-long-range forecast models for bacterial leaf bligh damaging single season rice in southen Anhui and southwest Anhui was set up,respectively.The percentage of the results'corresponding to historical data was 89.47%,94.74%,respectively.The mid-long-range forecast models for rice blast early damaging late season rice,single season rice and early sease rice in southen Anhui,middle Anhui and southwest Anhui was set up,respectively.The percentage of the results'corresponding to historical data was 86.23%,82.65%,83.56%,81.24%,83.52%, 79.63%,73.68%,78.94%and 84.21%,respectively.Accuracy of the mid-long-range forecast models for rice sheath blight damaging early season rice,single season rice and late seasen rice in southwest Anhui and southen Anhui was 87%,80%,88%,83%.86%and 84%,respectively.Accuracy of the mid-long-range forecast models for bacterial leaf bligh damaging single season rice in southwest Anhui and southen Anhui was 90%and 82%. Accuracy of the mid-long-range forecast models for rice blast damaging early season rice, single season rice and late seasen rice in southen Anhui,middle Anhui and southwest Anhui was 82%,80%,85%,81%,79%,83%,80%,79%and 84%,respectively.The results show that the mid-long-range forecast models were models of reliability.Then duration of the occurrence of pests was forecasted by duration forecasting method,and trends of major diseases and pests were forecasted by time series methods.The accuracy of the results couldn't were determined,so need further study.The forecast and diagonosis system were set up by means of Visual Basic 6.0.Major symptom,disease picture and control methods over twenty kinds of disease were collected in diagnosis system.For the knowledge expressing,expert database was used.The database was mainly composed of 6 tabulations such as seedling diseases,leaf diseases,vagina and stem base and root segment disease,ear and grain husk shell headquarter disease,systemic diseases,control decision tabulation.The whole system was composed of 4 modules that included diagnoses of rice disease,searching method of management,introduction and exit system with such functions as searching method of prevention etc.Diagonosis system could help users diagnoses the disease intuitionisticly and control the disease in time.The system is available in diagnoses and prevention of rice production.The system was driven with menu and person-computer interlocutory way to select.Running the system in properly condition,choosing the needed item or inputting necessary information,the users could achieve satisfactory running effect.The system of person-computer alternation interface was friendly,and all operation had screen hint.After being tested,the system achieved our designing aim,it can run exactly and unfailingly.It had evident superiority,contrasted with tradition management system.