The Influence Of Self-confidence Level,Self-relation Degree And Task Difficulty On The Hindsight Bias Effect

Hindsight bias is the tendency for people with outcome knowledge to believe falsely that the event follows some regulations and we can predict the reported outcome. When people once learning the outcome of an event, they tend to inflate what could have been predicted in foresight, this phenomenon also is called "know-it-all-along". In our true life, hindsight bias always makes people produce false judgments, or do harm to somebody else. Human being' growth is adaptive learning through communicating information with outsides, and refreshing information. Hindsight bias exactly reflects this learning behavior, we investigate hindsight bias can study learning from another aspect. Now researchers mainly investigate hindsight bias from cognitive reconstruction, motivation and memory illusion facets.Self-confidence is a stable character trait, which is confidence degree in oneself or someone make impersonal right cognition and evaluation on his/her abilities and values. It ties up with individual success or failure experience. Hindsight bias reflect overconfidence, people have higher confidence when knowing outcome of an event than forecasting. So we can say confidence level can influence hindsight bias. Self-relation degree is the relation between an event and oneself. When individual get in the event, Self-relation degree is great, otherwise, Self-relation degree is little.The paper mainly using hindsight bias effect research model-hypothetical design, utilizing finding differences in picture to study hindsight bias effect phenomenon, stresses hindsight bias effect existence universality, with individual self-confident level, self-connection degree relations, difficult task with answer or no, simple and difficult task whether can cause hindsight bias effect difference, as well as whether does the different hindsight bias effect create the identical cognition task the difference. The research altogether divides four experiments, the experiment1 uses PEI to filter the high and low self-confident level subjects, and utilizes the difficulty moderate picture requesting subjects to find difference, and choose the duty difficulty, after the first duty had ended, requesting subjects try supposition of never seeing these pictures to make difficulty choice, two difficulty choice difference is the hindsight bias effect value. Compare the hindsight bias between the experimental group (giving answer feedback) and the baseline group (non-answer feedback). the experiment 2's procedure is similar to experiment 1's, the difference is after the first duty, we request experimental group to suppose other people (baseline group supposing theirselves) never seeing these pictures to carry on a difficulty choice again. Two difficulty choice differences for hindsight bias effect value, and compare the hindsight bias effect between the self-relation, and other-relation conditions. Experiment 3 uses the difficult picture to carry on finding difference, after experimental group (has answer after the experimental group to feed back) and the baseline group (non-answer feedback) completing two difficulty choices, we gives 30 pairs to find difference in pictures, carries on the difficulty choice. Experiment 4 uses the simple picture and the difficult picture two kinds of task materials, and procedure is similar to experiment 3's. The findings show that:1,The hindsight bias effect is the universal existence phenomenon, it is stable. The individual self-confident level has certain influence on hindsight bias effect, the low self-confidence level individuals display different hindsight bias effect in the answer feedback or no feedback group, the scores of low self-confident subjects in the feedback group are generally higher than the subjects in the non feedback group, the high self-confident level individual display no different in hindsight bias effect in the answer feedback or no feed back group.2,Individual self-relation degree influence hindsight bias effect size, when the relation between event and individual relation degree is greater, the hindsight bias effect is obviously bigger than when the relation between event and others relation degree.3,Under the condition of difficult task, The individuals regardless of whether gives the answer feedback or no all display the hindsight bias effect, and the hindsight bias effect in the feedback group is obviously bigger than in the non-answer feedback group. under the answer difficult task, the hindsight bias effect Whether in feedback group or no feedback group has no influence on the identical cognition task.4,The individual all displays the remarkable hindsight bias effect under the simple and difficult task condition, the hindsight bias effect under the difficult task condition is obviously higher than under the simple task condition. The hindsight bias effect under simple duty and difficult duty has different influence on the identical cognition task: The individual scores have no difference in the "1 difference" task difficulty condition; In "3 differences","5 differences" condition, the scores of individuals experiencing simple task is generally higher than the scores of individuals experiencing difficult task.