The Influence Of Self-relation Degree, Knowledge Background And Difficulty On The Hindsight Bias Effect About News Reading

Hindsight bias effect is the tendency for people to view event outcomes as more regularly or inevitable than they appeared in foresight. In daily life, hindsight bias effect always makes people produce false judgments, or unnecessary losses. Researchers have demonstrated the Universality of hindsight bias effect, some models are developed to explain mechanisms on the formation of hindsight bias effect. However, in practical applications, there are still some research gaps about hindsight bias effect.In the process of broadcasting, hindsight bias effect of the audient will lead to cognitive biases and influence the effect of communication. This study examine that self-relation degree, knowledge background and difficulty of hindsight bias effect in news reading, and find the relevant components of the comparison between Three experimental studies, test the explanatory power of relevant theoretical models through analysis on the "impression of foreseeability " and " impression of necessity ".This study hope that through the study on the impact of hindsight bias effect on news reading could guide the public to be more objective and impartial when facing various news events and public events.The study altogether divides three experiments, the experiment 1 uses graduation'time to filter the subjects, and choose the duty difficulty, requesting the subjects forecast employment rates, impression of foreseeability and necessity. the experiment 2 uses the knowledge of sports to filter the subjects, requesting the subjects forecast result before a football match, and recall result after the football match, compare the hindsight bias between the real result and the forecast result and the recall result. the experiment 3 uses degree of difficulty audio materials to filter the subjects, two difficulty difference is the hindsight bias effect value.The findings showed that:1. Hindsight bias effect is ubiquitous in news reading, whatever text materials and audio materials;2. The more associated between news and people, the more conspicuous the hindsight bias effect is;3. Differences in knowledge background may lead to different levels of hindsight bias effect;4. The degree of difficulty of news reading may lead to different levels of hindsight bias effect;5. Under the influence of relation degree, knowledge background and degree of difficulty, the the "impression of foreseeability " and " impression of necessity " maybe differ.