Research On Secure Per Capita Grain Possession Of China In The Well Off Stage

On basis of synthesizing and absorbing the forefather's study on food security, secure per capita grain possession is set up as a general index to reflect the degree of food security. Secure per capita grain possession is per capita grain supply which can meet per capita grain demand.Based on the rectified data of per capita food consumption, by means of computing grain demand and supply of China and the nutrition composition of main food, the nutrition status of Chinese people is analysed.In order to predict per capita grain demand, per capita food consumption is rectified, the grain demand and supply of china is computed and the nutrition composition of main food is established. A logarithm demand function is modeled to make a quantitative analysis about per capita food consumption of Chinese people. Per capita grain demand in the well off stage is predicted according to nutrition and income.Conclusions:Firstly, now the nutrition status of Chinese people is in a low level and there is a big difference between city and county, that is the nutrition level of Citizen is much better than farmer's.Secondly, there are such many transitions of the food consumption structure of Chinese people, as beginning to improve the quality of food, descending the consumption of grain and raising the consumption of stock food quickly.Thirdly, per capita grain demand will rise because of the change of food consumption structure, increased income and improved citification.Fourthly, per capita grain demand of China will be between 390 and 405 kg in 2010 and will be between 430 and 490 kg in 2020.Fifthly, the per capita grain production of china will be between 370 and 400 kg in 2010 and will between 400 and 450 kg in 2020.Sixthly, the secure per capita grain possession of china will be 400 kg in 2010, 420 kg in 2015 and 450 kg in 2020.So before 2010, the base line per capita grain owning 400 kg is secure. To keep food security, per capita grain possession should be 420 kg in 2015 and 450 kg in 2020. For the purpose, thegrain productivity of china should be improved.