Market Analysis And Risk Study On Real Estate In Beijing

Although real estate industry started lately in china, it has boomed since the reform and opening, especially since 1990. Real estate industry has become one of the quite important branches in the national economy. At the same time, many problems are exposed in the course of development because of not only the macro-control but also the investor and developer. Since the enterprise hasn efficiently understood real estate economy and the market running mechanism, the supply and demand is disjointed. One hand, excessive inefficient supply results into a great deal of vacancy, on the other hand, the keen need of people isn contented.Basing on the basic concept of real estate economy, this paper summarizes and studies systematically the supply-theory, demand-theory, proportion-theory, vacancy-theory and market forecast-theory. On the basis of the analysis of the Beijing real estate market, the paper focuses on discussing the supply and demand status of the land market, residence market and office-building market as well as exiting problems and reasons of real estate market. Furthermore, the thesis emphasizes on analyzing the reasons and countermeasure of vacancy problem resulted from the disproportion of supply and demand. Then, establishes the vacancy rate counting model that is suit for the situation of our country.The paper uses the cause-effect method to analyze the factors of demand, and applies the gray association analysis method to study quantitatively the relative importance of all kinds of market effect factors. According to the analysis of the market sale of Beijing real estate, the thesis constitutes the gray MOKV-process forecasting model that is adapted to real estate market. Also, the paper forecasts the future of Beijing real estate market.The discourse analyzes the factor and mechanism of the risk in real estate market. On this basis, applies the fuzzy evaluation method to appraise real estate risk of Beijing and puts forward the relevant preventable and controllable measures.Basing on relevant theory and lots of practice data investigated, the paper performs systematic and deep demonstration and analysis about Beijing real estate market, which is worth referencing for the researcher and experts working in the field of real estate.