Study On Risk Analysis And Evaluation Of Engineering Investment Project

According to the state regulated safety norm or the generally accepted safety norm, risk evaluation is used to measure the degree of risk in order to confirm whether the risk needs to be controlled or the degree of controlling.With the raise of the society productive force and the development of science technology, the scale and complexity of the engineering investment project become more and more large, and the project possesses such characteristic as long period, large amount, complex internal structure, wide-ranging external contact and large extent of the influence of success or failure. Because of these characteristic of the project, random interference factors often emerge in the process of its carrying out. It leads to more risk of it. On the other hand, its characteristic of large extent of the influence of success or failure decides that it must succeed, so the risk management becomes more important. In the whole process of an engineering investment project, there must be various kinds of unstable factors that can take the positive or negative effect upon the project, but the final result is come into being by all these unstable factors. In order to ensure the real benefit, it is absolutely necessary that objective and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk be made and corresponding measures be taken. There is very important practical significance to improve the economy benefit of construction project investment in our country.First, the conception, characteristic and classification of risk are summed up, the risk of engineering investment project and the theory of risk analysis are introduced and the function of risk evaluation is pointed out; secondly, risk factors are analyzed particularly from the perspective of the system and the source of risk, the direct action body of risk, the influence of goal which made by the risk and the process of project management separately; thirdly, after the risk identification, the investor must make evaluation whether the investment is successful or not and take measures to avoid the risks according to it. Based on the summary of previous evaluation methods, this paper points out the shortcomings of them, then draw the theory of artificial neural network into risk evaluation, through an example of some kind of investment project and the training and examination of a group investigation sample, it sets up the artificial neural network model. At last, this model is applied to the real case of an engineering project to evaluate its risk level and satisfactory result is made; in the fifth chapter of this paper, the mainrisk factors that affect the economic appraisal of the engineering investment project are described through the form of relationship chart. Then it is proved by way of deduction of formula that the risky influence that is brought by inflation must be considered in the engineering investment project. On the basis of the analysis of shortcomings that lie in the previous express formula of net cash flow, another kind of express formula, that is to say, the analysis model, is put forward and the process of answering is explained particularly. At the same time, how to select appropriately the probability distribution of each risk variable is analyzed. At last, a new risk measurement model that considers the investor's risk hobby is brought forward.The risk evaluation of investment project is a very complex system evaluation. The paper puts merely forth effort to provide a kind of thinking and frame to analyze and solve this kind of problem and provides reference for the decision-maker to make his decision more reasonable and scientific.